"Beto should run for President in 2020! He had such a great turn-out in Texas, which is such a Red State™!"
These are the kind of things I've been hearing about the coming messiah, Robert Francis 'Beto' O'Rourke. I've heard how close he came to beating Ted Cruz, which shouldn't have been possible in a Red State™ like Texas.
Yes. I'm trademarking "Red State™" when it comes to Texas, because this couldn't be further from the truth. Texas used to be Republican-Red for many years. But demographics have been changing, and not in a natural, organic way. Like much of the rest of the country, the high-density population centers have become more Democrat-Blue. The rest of the country tends to have remained the usual mix of Democrat-Republican that should be normally expected. Sure, rural America has tended toward Republican since the 60's. That's a discussion for another post, but suffice it to say, there are common ideals held between the conservative and self-reliant American farmers and the Republican party.
There may be several reasons for it, but one obvious reason may be one of demographics:
- Urban areas have greater numbers of poor and low-income families.
- Urban areas have greater numbers of poorly educated with crumbling school systems.
- Urban areas have greater numbers of ethnic and racial minorities.
Don't read too much into that last one. Being ethnic / racial minority does not mean you are liberal or conservative. But there are social pressures which do occur in those communities to vote particular ways. Voting for a Republican may be cause to be called a "race-traitor" or worse. In addition, there are consolidated efforts in these areas to provide education and media which tells them they need to vote in their "self-interest" for liberal policies.
So let's look at the state of the State of Texas for a moment. There are thirty-six Congressional districts in the state for the US House of Representatives. Of those 36, twenty-four are held by Republicans. Sounds like a Red State™, doesn't it? In 2018, all 36 districts held a vote. Of these 24 Republican-held districts, 3.6 million voted Republican and 1.6 million voted Democrat. Sounds like a very solid Red State™ with 69% voting Republican.
But there are thirteen Democrat-held districts in Texas. In 2018, those districts voted 2.2 million Democrat to 0.6 million Republican. That's 80% voting Democrat in these districts! Those districts are firmly under Democrat control. For one-third of the districts in Texas, they are very far from being a Red-State™.
What about the State of Texas as a whole? Is it a bonafide Red State™ still?
Combining the votes from both Republican and Democrat districts, there were 4.1 million Republican votes to 3.8 million Democrat votes. That'a 52-48 split in a state that is supposed to be "solidly a Red State™"!
Guess what the vote split was between Cruz and Beto? Cruz had 4.2 million and Beto had 4.0 million. That's a 51-49 split; one-percent better than the state average.
Texas is not a Red State™. And this is only being driven by demographics in urban areas.
source:
Texas Midterm Election Results, By ABC NEWS - Nov 6, 2018