Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Rambling on American Conservatism

I think I figured out why Jeremy Boreing's "Conservatism / American Liberalism" point of view gets under my skin so much.

Jeremy once decried the 'groypers' who trolled 'conservatives' over homosexuals. In doing so, he said "American Conservatives want to conserve American Liberalism". This is a callback to the foundations of the Republican party where they were considered the liberals of the day.

Which is why many modern 'liberals' claim there was a Party-Switch™. (Spoiler: there was none.) The Republicans were pro-abolition and pro-human-rights and were for the government helping those who needed help. These were seen as 'liberal' for the day.

Modern 'liberals' call this 'big-government' and equate it to FDR-style programs. (It isn't.) But the original Republicans definitely did NOT believe in what Jeremy calls 'American liberalism'.

One HUGE proof that early Republicans were not no-government libertarian types was when they had the federal government enforce abolition on the southern states against their will. If I recall, they were kind of forceful about it.
"I guess it’s popular on the right these days to decry libertarians anytime you don’t like one of the many consequences of freedom." - Jeremy
Consequences of freedom can be ugly. This is why we are not a democracy, but a republic. It's for the protection of the minority group.
"Do you believe this is the same culture it was ten or fifty or a hundred years ago?" - Jeremy
Surprisingly, it's not that different. It's just people keep redefining terms (like 'conservative').

I've been putting scare-quotes around 'liberalism' because they're not really liberal. They're authoritarian progressives. And many 'conservatives' are actually libertarians or even anarchists.

Which is why we have such trouble discussing EVERY issue. Words should have meanings.

Jeremy says we "cannot and should not" use government to enforce morality. Then he says we can on abortion because: reasons.

While I agree on abortion, it's the same on any cultural issue. What people do affects society, so society has a stake in what people do.

Progressives laugh when we discuss 'slippery-slopes' in every argument. And within only a couple of years, every slippery slope has occurred and we have to fight the same battles again.

But if we had only used politics and government to regulate this before, we wouldn't have to.

Saying politics will change if we change our culture ignores the fact that culture unbridled will change our politics whether we want it to or not. It's they tyranny of the majority and the tragedy of the commons, wrapped into one disaster.

And then people like Jeremy say, "but Conservatism is American Liberalism" while the circling of the drain continues.

Monday, December 9, 2019

Rambling on the Trump-Ukraine fiasco

The Trump conversation with Zelensky regarding the investigation of Burisma and the Bidens has nothing to do with the 2016 election nor the 2020 upcoming elections.

It has to do with Ukraine corruption and the 'Orange Revolution' of 2004 where the election was rigged for Yanukovych. One of Yanukovych's cronies was Zlochevskiy, who was appointed as Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources and then as the Deputy Secretary of Economic and Social Security. Yanukovych was ousted in 2014 in the Ukrainian Revolution.

Zlochevskiy is the founder of Burisma, the largest oil and natural gas company in Ukraine. Burisma hired Hunter Biden in 2014, three months after the revolution.

Zlochevskiy fled the Ukraine at the end of 2014 under suspicion of self-enrichment while in office.

In 2015, Shokin was appointed Ukraine's Prosecutor General. He established an anti-corruption department. Shokin was accused of stalling investigations into Yanukovych's allies (such as Zlochevskiy). In February of 2016, Shokin raided the home of Zlochevskiy. Later that same month, a Burisma representative in the US (Blue Star Strategies) contacted the US State Department about the Burisma investigation.

In March, the then VP, Joe Biden, threatened to withhold $1 billion in US backed loans unless Shokin was fired. Later that month, Shokin was dismissed.
Shokin was going to be fired for NOT investigating Yanukovych's allies.

Zlochevskiy was a Yanukovych ally.
Zlochevskiy founded Burisma.
When Shokin began investigating Burisma, Biden had him fired, citing corruption.

THAT is why Burisma was being investigated for corruption and how Biden was directly involved.

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Why you should always buy the men’s version of almost anything - Re-Blog

Radio Flyer sells a red scooter for boys and a pink scooter for girls. Both feature plastic handlebars, three wheels and a foot brake. Both weigh about five pounds.

The only significant difference is the price, a new report reveals. Target listed one for $24.99 and the other for $49.99.

The scooters' price gap isn't an anomaly. The New York City Department of Consumer Affairs compared nearly 800 products with female and male versions — meaning they were practically identical except for the gender-specific packaging — and uncovered a persistent surcharge for one of the sexes. Controlling for quality, items marketed to girls and women cost an average 7 percent more than similar products aimed at boys and men.

DCA Commissioner Julie Menin, who launched the investigation this summer, said the numbers show an insidious form of gender discrimination. Compounding the injustice, she said, is the wage gap. Federal data shows women in the United States earn about 79 cents for every dollar paid to men.

“It’s a double whammy,” Menin said, “and it’s not just happening in New York. You see in the aisles the issue is clearly applicable to consumers across the country.”

A Target spokesperson said the company lowered the price of the pink scooter after the report was released Friday, calling the discrepancy a "system error."

When asked about the price differences of other gendered toys — like the Raskullz shark helmet ($14.99) and the Raskullz unicorn helmet ($27.99) or the Playmobil pirate ship ($24.99) and the Playmobil fairy queen ship ($37.99) — the representative pointed to a company statement, declining to elaborate: "Our competitive shop process ensures that we are competitively priced in local markets. A difference in price can be related to production costs or other factors."

Researchers for the New York City Department of Consumer Affairs pored over toys, children’s clothing, adult apparel, personal care products and home goods sold in the city. The largest price discrepancy emerged in the hair care category: Women, on average, paid 48 percent more for goods like shampoo, conditioner and gel. Razor cartridges came in second place, costing female shoppers 11 percent more.

Walgreens, for example, peddled a blue box of Schick Hydro 5 cartridges for $14.99. The Schick Hydro “Silk,” its purple sibling, was priced at $18.49.

Across the New York sample, women’s products carried higher price tags 42 percent of the time, while men’s products cost more 18 percent of the time.

Boosting prices according to who's buying is nothing new. Hairdressers often charge women more. Nightclubs sometimes demand more cash from men for admission.

Price discrimination on the whole tends to be worse for women, though. A 1994 report from the State of California found they pay an annual “gender tax” of $1,351 for the same services rendered to men.

Women spend an average of 25 percent more on haircuts (that require the same amount of labor as a men’s style) and 27 percent more for the laundering of a white cotton shirt, a 2002 DCA study showed.

Another analysis from the University of Central Florida found women’s deodorants typically cost 30 cents more than the same product for men. Wrote the authors,“The only discernible difference was scent.”

The pricing differences extend beyond basic services and goods. Until courts knocked the practice down, insurance companies in Europe charged women more because women live longer. Under the Affordable Care Act, insurance companies in the United States cannot factor gender into cost.

New York City law has banned gender discrimination the pricing of services since 1998. Businesses cannot legally charge more for haircuts or dry cleaning, for example, based on the patron’s sex. They must instead offer gender-neutral rates by labor intensity.

That doesn’t mean local companies always follow the rules. DCA inspectors issued 129 violations for gender pricing of services this year, compared to 118 in 2014.

California and Florida's Miami­Dade County also prohibit selling the same services to men and women at different prices. No federal law, though, requires businesses to set gender­-equal prices on products. New York City’s report was released to heighten consumer awareness, Menin said, and to publicly shame companies with glaring disparities.

Of the 24 retailers in the New York City report, the worst gender pricing disparity surfaced at Club Monaco, where women’s clothing cost an average of 28.9 percent more than men’s clothing, according to an independent analysis by economist Ian Ayres. Urban Outfitters trailed with a 24.6 percent gender premium, followed by Levis with 24.3 percent.

The retailers did not respond to the Post's request for comment.

In 1991, Ayres, a professor at Yale Law School, sent men and women to car dealerships across the Chicago area. He learned white women were charged 40 percent more than white men, supporting the stereotype that dealers assume women knew less about car values.

Gender equality has improved considerably since Ayres’s paper was published — so why do blatant price disparities persist today? “One contributing factor is profitability,” he said. “You’re pulling an extra dollar out of a certain group of consumers.”

Companies might be exploiting the idea that female shoppers are willing to spend more money than their male counterparts, he said.

Of course, a woman’s sweater might be crafted with nicer fabrics. A man’s sweater might be stitched with cheaper polyester. But that often isn't the case. Frequently, the only difference between two products is color.

“Those prices aren’t being driven by costs,” Ayres said, “but just because you take advantage of certain groups but not others.”

Ravi Dhar, director of the Center for Customer Insights at the Yale School of Management, said how we perceive “women’s” products could help explain why gender markups persist in the marketplace.

“Many men's products are not seen as men's products,” he said. “They might just be seen as products in the category.”

Which makes the “pink” version a specialty product, he said. "His" and "hers" items might stem from antiquated gender roles, but our appetites for personally tailored goods might have kept the distinction alive.

“People see a greater fit between the product and their tastes," Dhar said, "and may be willing to pay more."


source:
Why you should always buy the men’s version of almost anything
By Danielle Paquette

Nazi Platform

A reflection on the Nazi Platform and its possible basis of comparison to modern American politics.

The Program of the German Workers’ Party is a program for our time.
The leadership rejects the establishment of new aims after those set out in the Program have been achieved, for the sole purpose of making it possible for the Party to continue to exist as the result of the artificially stimulated dissatisfaction of the masses.
National Socialist German Workers Party Platform American Equivalent Basis
1. We demand the uniting of all Germans within one Greater Germany, on the basis of the right to self-determination of nations. Right Nationalism
2. We demand equal rights for the German people (Volk) with respect to other nations, and the annulment of the peace treaty of Versailles and St. Germain. Libertarian Isolationism
3. We demand land and soil (Colonies) to feed our People and settle our excess population. Right Nationalism
4. Only Nationals (Volksgenossen) can be Citizens of the State. Right Citizenship
Only persons of German blood can be Nationals, regardless of religious affiliation. Right Nationalism and Religious Freedom
No Jew can therefore be a German National. Far Left / Far Right Antisemitism
5. Any person who is not a Citizen will be able to live in Germany only as a guest and must be subject to legislation for Aliens. Right Immigration
6. Only a Citizen is entitled to decide the leadership and laws of the State. Right Voter ID
We therefore demand that only Citizens may hold public office, regardless of whether it is a national, state or local office. Right Nationalism
We oppose the corrupting parliamentary custom of making party considerations, and not character and ability, the criterion for appointments to official positions. Left Democracy over Republicanism
7. We demand that the State make it its duty to provide opportunities of employment first of all for its own Citizens. Left Government Job Creation
If it is not possible to maintain the entire population of the State, then foreign nationals (non-Citizens) are to be expelled from the Reich. Right Immigration
8. Any further immigration of non-Germans is to be prevented. We demand that all non-Germans who entered Germany after August 2, 1914, be forced to leave the Reich without delay. Right Immigration
9. All German Citizens must have equal rights and duties. Left Equal Rights
10. It must be the first duty of every Citizen to carry out intellectual or physical work. Right Duty to Work
Individual activity must not be harmful to the public interest and must be pursued within the framework of the community and for the general good.

We therefore demand:
Left Limitation on Freedom of Expression
11. The abolition of all income obtained without labor or effort. Left Unearned Income
Breaking the Servitude of Interest. Left Anti-Bank
12. In view of the tremendous sacrifices in property and blood demanded of the nation by every war, personal gain from the war must be termed a crime against the nation. We therefore demand the total confiscation of all war profits. Left War Profiteering
13. We demand the nationalization of all enterprises (already) converted into corporations (trusts). Left Government Ownership of Production
14. We demand profit-sharing in large enterprises. Left Profit-sharing
15. We demand the large-scale development of old-age pension schemes. Left Social Security
16. We demand the creation and maintenance of a sound middle class; Left "Maintenance" of Middle Class
the immediate communalization of the large department stores, which are to be leased at low rates to small tradesmen. Left Communism and Trade Unions
We demand the most careful consideration for the owners of small businesses in orders placed by national, state, or community authorities. Left Small Business over Low Prices
17. We demand land reform in accordance with our national needs and a law for expropriation without compensation of land for public purposes. Left Eminent Domain for Public Use
Abolition of ground rent and prevention of all speculation in land. Left Anti-Speculation
18. We demand ruthless battle against those who harm the common good by their activities. Persons committing base crimes against the People, usurers, profiteers, etc., are to be punished by death without regard to religion or race. Left Anti-Bank
19. We demand the replacement of Roman Law, which serves a materialistic World Order, by German Law. Left Anti-Capitalism
20. In order to make higher education – and thereby entry into leading positions – available to every able and industrious German, the State must provide a thorough restructuring of our entire public educational system. Left Free Education
The courses of study at all educational institutions are to be adjusted to meet the requirements of practical life. Left Government Mandated Curriculum
Understanding of the concept of the State must be achieved through the schools (teaching of civics) at the earliest age at which it can be grasped. Right Civics
We demand the education at the public expense of specially gifted children of poor parents, without regard to the latters’ position or occupation. Left Free Education
21. The State must raise the level of national health by means of mother-and-child care, the banning of juvenile labor, achievements of physical fitness through legislation for compulsory gymnastics and sports, and maximum support for all organizations providing physical training for young people. Left Compulsory Education
22. We demand the abolition of hireling troops and the creation of a national army. Right National Military
23. We demand laws to fight against deliberate political lies and their dissemination by the press. In order to make it possible to create a German press, we demand: Right Anti-Press
a) all editors and editorial employees of newspapers appearing in the German language must be German by race; Right National Language
b) non-German newspapers require express permission from the State for their publication. They may not be printed in the German language; Right Non-Citizen Laws
c) any financial participation in a German newspaper or influence on such a paper is to be forbidden by law to non-Germans and the penalty for any breach of this law will be the closing of the newspaper in question, as well as the immediate expulsion from the Reich of the non-Germans involved. Right Immigration
Newspapers which violate the public interest are to be banned. Left Government Controlled Media
We demand laws against trends in art and literature which have a destructive effect on our national life, and the suppression of performances that offend against the above requirements. Right "Right and Wrong" in Art
24. We demand freedom for all religious denominations, provided that they do not endanger the existence of the State or offend the concepts of decency and morality of the Germanic race. Right Freedom of Religion
The Party as such stands for positive Christianity, without associating itself with any particular denomination. Right Pro-Christianity
It fights against the Jewish-materialistic spirit within and around us, and is convinced that a permanent revival of our nation can be achieved only from within, on the basis of: Public Interest before Private Interest. Far Left / Far Right Antisemitism
25. To carry out all the above we demand: the creation of a strong central authority in the Reich. Left Authoritarian Government
Unquestioned authority by the political central Parliament over the entire Reich and over its organizations in general. Left Anti-Federalism
The establishment of trade and professional organizations to enforce the Reich basic laws in the individual states. Left Trade Unions
The Party leadership promises to take an uncompromising stand, at the cost of their own lives if need be, on the enforcement of the above points.
Munich, Germany
February 24, 1920.

source:
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/platform-of-the-national-socialist-german-workers-rsquo-party

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Plague Post - growing like a pest

It has recently become a fascination of mine to look into plagues, specifically yersinia pestis (Y.Pestis), and the unexpected outcomes of tragedy. I have been frightfully surprised at these outcomes; not because they're uniformly horrific, but because some of the outcomes are strangely wonderful.

'Wonderful' is an odd word to use when discussing the deaths of literally millions of people. But I use that word because some unintended consequences of tragedy can be truly be full of wonder and amazement. Imagine a horrific disease, so bad it becomes named "The Black Death", causing an increase in life and health! As strange as it sounds, these two seemingly polar opposites can be true.

Comedy, they say, is tragedy plus time. Perhaps given enough time, tragedy becomes triumph.

This blog post will, like the subject disease, will evolve over time. This is new territory for me, so some of my thoughts will be (like the blog title) rambling and incoherent. Over time, given more research, I hope to return to this post again and again, like the recurrence of the plague, to refine it and correct errors and omissions.


Let's begin with a timeline of this particular disease.
  • 7000 BC - Neolithic Period begins.
  • 4000 BC - The first known (at this time) emergence of Y.Pestis, but in a much less virulent form. Perhaps diverged from other yersinia pathogens.
  • 3500 BC - Domestication of horses in western Eurasia.
  • 3000 BC - Record of Y.Pestis DNA in Eurasia. Perhaps acquired the ability to infect fleas at this time.
  • 3000 BC - The Neolithic Decline is a period where neolithic populations mysteriously declined, signalling the end of the Neolithic Period.
  • 2500 BC - Evidence of widespread use of wheeled vehicles;earliest in Hungary.
  • 2300 BC - Bronze Age begins.
  • 2000 BC - The virulence of Y.Pestis increases. Able to spread between mammals via flea bites.
  • 1800 BC - DNA of Y.Pestis found in Samara region of Russia; north of Caspian Sea.
  • 800 BC - DNA of Y.Pestis found in Armenia; west of Caspian Sea.
  • 700 BC - Iron Age begins.
It's important to note some things at this juncture. It's probable that the Neolithic Decline, which occurred about 5000 years ago (~3000 BC), was due to the emergence of Y.Pestis and its new found virulence. Fortunately for the world, neolithic societies did not interact much with one another. The spread of the bacteria was minimal. Whole groups just died alone without causing much fuss and bother for the rest of the world. The bacteria's hosts just weren't mobile enough to spread very far before dying themselves.

Prior to the Neolithic Decline, many 'mega-settlements' had formed in Europe and elsewhere. As the plague decimated the Eurasian steppes, people fled from these areas. They unwittingly brought Y.Pestis with them. The stone age peoples in such large concentrations were easy prey for Y.Pestis, and those who survived the journey to bring it there were likely resistant or immune to it. So this migration seemed to be one not of integration but of replacement.

And we come to the first of the strangely beneficial effects of the plague. The horse was first domesticated in the western steppes of Eurasia, generally accepted as in the Ural Mountains, north of the Caspian Sea. With the spread of wheeled technology, travel over distance becomes much easier. When the plague drives people out of the Eurasian steppes into western Europe and beyond, they brought their horses with them. They find and adopt the wheeled technology in those areas.

Suddenly, horse riding cultures spread across Europe and are displacing the peoples living there. Wheeled vehicles become commonplace. Travel becomes easier. Simple herding and farming techniques advance into agriculture, trade, and commerce.

Language, as well, was directly affected by the plague and its tendency to enforce migration from the Eurasian steppes. Many languages today can be traced to 'Indo-European' sources. In fact, 'Proto-Indo-European', or PIE, is the largest spoken language group in the world today. PIE is thought to have been a single spoken language from 4500 BC to 2500 BC, and it originated in the Caspian steppe of western Eurasia. Some of the descendant languages include: Spanish, English, Portuguese, Hindi, Urdu, Bengali, Russian, Punjabi, German, Persian, French, and Italian, just to name a few. Branches from the PIE include: Hellenic, Indo-Iranian, Italic, Celtic, Germanic, and Balto-Slavic.
"And the whole earth was of one language, and of one speech. And it came to pass, as they journeyed from the east, that they found a plain in the land of Shinar; and they dwelt there."
Genesis 11:1-2

"And the Lord said, Behold, the people is one, and they have all one language; and this they begin to do: and now nothing will be restrained from them, which they have imagined to do."
Genesis 11:6
This is just conjecture, but the breakup of PIE into branches may have been a reaction to the plague. When foreigners came to your land, any means to differentiate them from your tribe became important. Simple shibboleths became markers of outsiders, and outsiders might have the plague. Groups isolated themselves from foreigners to protect themselves and their communities. Isolation will intensify language differences. Those differences become pronounced and identifiable. It becomes easier to identify outsiders and possible carriers. Language becomes a defensive tool against the plague and certain death.

One last thing to note before moving on. Many sources postulate that the more well known versions of the plague, specifically the Justinian Plague and the Black Death, originated in China. It is clear to me that the actual origin of the Y.Pestis virus in the commonly known form was from the Eurasian steppes. While later versions of Y.Pestis may have returned to Europe from China, it is only because China first received the plague from western Eurasia.


  • 200 BC - Roman Climate Optimum; until 150 AD.
  • 165 AD - Antonine Plague.
  • 180 AD - Grave in China found to contain Y.Pestis strain genetically linked to later plagues.
  • 249 AD - Plague of Cyprian.
  • 312 AD - Conversion of Constantine.
  • 450 AD - Late Antique Little Ice Age; until 700 AD.
  • 541 AD - Justinian Plague. Recurrence of this plague continues for about 200 years.


Yellow Fever originated in Africa and came to the Americas during the colonization, mostly from the southern slave trade. However, many of the slaves from Africa had a natural immunity to it due to the prevalence of it in their home countries. Many had it as children and had developed natural antibodies as a result. So when Yellow Fever spread to the white settlers, it decimated them and left the black slaves relatively unscathed. It was postulated at the time that black people were genetically unable to get Yellow Fever, so white patients were often exclusively cared for by black caregivers. They observed black men and women acting as physicians and nurses, rather than simple bearers of burdens. In the north, this fueled sympathy for their black caregivers and led to widespread sympathy for wider abolition movements. In the south, their worth as cheap labor obviously overshadowed their worth as men and women.

Sickle cell disease coincidentally protects the sufferer from malaria. One unintended result of slavery in the Americas meant that non-black slaves would contract and often die of malaria at higher rates than black slaves. This meant a black slave would stay healthy longer in the hot, humid climate of the south in America, of the Caribbean, and of South America. They could work longer and live longer than non-white slaves (i.e. Irish or Natives). The northern climates of America had no serious malaria concerns, so black slaves were not valued as much as they were in the southern states.


https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/26/1903797116

the black plague and the need for a new printing method
How The Bubonic Plague Made Europe Great
THE BLACK DEATH
Did the Black Death Give Life to the English Language?
The Benefits Of The Black Plague History Essay
The Renaissance – why it changed the world

Late Antiquity Little Ice Age Triggered Plague, Decline of Empires, and Migration
Little Ice Age, Big Consequences

125-year mini ice age linked to the plague and fall of empires


source:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.11.005
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-ancient-strain-plague-decline-neolithic.html
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/12/181206120035.htm
https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Europe/The-Neolithic-Period
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/01/health/01plague.html
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/25/12363
https://www.ancient-origins.net/news-history-archaeology/plague-pandemic-0012091
https://www.livescience.com/29498-plague-helped-destroy-roman-empire.html
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-climate-change-and-disease-helped-fall-rome-180967591/

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

billion dollar Big Mac revisited

I once did a post about the minimum wage, McDonalds, and the Big Mac. I used the publicly available information at the time, and I did the math (FUN!). That was six years ago. Time flies and statistics change. How would that post read if written today?

Let's do it!

McDonalds 2013McDonalds 2018
Company Owned Locations6,7382,770
Franchise Locations28,69135,085

We can already see that McDonalds has shed many company owned locations in favor of franchise owned. This distributes the liability of employees to the franchisees. So there is one direct impact of the minimum wage that will affect local, small businesses to a greater degree than it will the large corporation. Raised wages will cripple the small business owner, and only trickle-up to the corporation.

Company-operated restaurant expenses ($millions)
Food & paper3,153.8
Payroll & employee benefits2,937.9
Occupancy & other operating expenses2,174.2
Franchised restaurants-occupancy expenses1,973.3
Selling, general & administrative expenses2,200.2

They directly employ 210,000 employees as of 2018. I don't have how many are employed by francisees. So we'll have to extrapolate franchise employees. If we do, we get about 2.5 million franchise employees. Previously, only about half of all employees were US-based. So, let's say only 1.25 million franchise employees are in the US, and we will ignore the McDonald's corporate employees, because we're not sure how many are salary versus hourly. And if we say 20% of the franchise employees are salary, that gives us a cool one million employees to work with.

1,000,000 McDonalds employees in the US
$7.50 minimum wage
$15.00 desired wage
550,000,000 Big Macs sold per year

Let's do math! (FUN!)
1,000,000 x ($15.00 - $7.50) = an additional $7,500,000 to employ all McDonalds employees for one hour.
but they don't all work at the same time... let's assume there are many more part-time workers than full time... and let's estimate each worker works and average of only 20 hours during any given week... we'll estimate low, just y'know, because we don't want to be unrealistic.
$7,500,000 x 20 = an additional $150,000,000 to pay for one week of all McDonalds employees.
there are 52 weeks in a year... usually.
$150,000,000 x 52 = an additional $7,800,000,000 to pay the additional wages of all McDonalds employees for one full year.
that's 7.8 Billion additional dollars... that has to come from somewhere... like raising the price of Big Macs.
$7,800,000,000 / 550,000,000 = an additional $14.18 per Big Mac.
what are they now, like $4.39?... so a Big Mac would cost $18.57 plus tax... no fries... no shake.
We just learned a few things. In the last six years since I first wrote the "Billion Dollar Big Mac", McDonalds has undergone some changes. First, they've shed corporate employees, but overall employment has risen. Second, the price of a Big Mac has nearly doubled. Lastly, the effect of the minimum wage has only worsened.

And who does it still effect? The poor and the small business owners.
the "rich" don't pay for Big Macs... it's the working poor... it's the same people who work at places like McDonalds who then shop and eat at places like McDonalds... it's us... we have to come up with $7.8 billion dollars.

sources:
https://rvolt24.blogspot.com/2013/08/billion-dollar-big-mac.html
https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/investors-relations/financial-information/sec-filings.html
http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000063908/94ad07bd-66c3-433c-a81e-94f1587b0ed8.pdf
https://www.reference.com/food/many-big-macs-sold-day-225cf538abc342ab

Thursday, March 14, 2019

The Socialist's Dilemma

while i'm not going to go into what a "Prisoner's Dilemma" or the "Tragedy of the Commons" is exactly, i will say that these absolutely show why Communism, and to a great degree Socialism, cannot work... and any refutation of this relies on a utopian society where all people are good, altruistic, and moral but also where there are no selfish or immoral people.

first, let's establish that there are, in fact, selfish people and immoral people... often, they are the same people... an immoral person may be immoral out of selfish reasons... a sociopath may be immoral without being selfish, but that would be the exception which proves the rule... a selfish person may indeed not be immoral, for what is immoral about self-preservation?... a decision which is good for the community as a whole, and therefore deemed moral by a Communist or Socialist society, may not be good for the individual... in fact, it may be directly detrimental to an individual... therefore, we cannot conclude that a selfish person is actually immoral, unless you define morality by self-sacrifice for the greater good, which Socialism often puts forward.

the healthcare debate in America is a prime example of selfish and immoral people in action... is it selfish to desire to keep one's own earned income?... to Socialists, yes... by keeping your own income is to deny needed resources to those who cannot earn their own; e.g. the disabled, the elderly, the young... an orphan may become a ward of the state, and how does the state pay for this orphan but through laying of taxes on those who might otherwise not provide for that orphan... the Libertarians might say it is for private charity to support the orphans, so those who are inclined to may give freely of their own resources... but history shows how poorly that goes for the orphans... during meager times, the larger donors may not have the resources to share, and those who did not give during times of plenty are sure to not give during times of scarcity... many might even assume that the needs are met by some unknown persons, and therefore their generosity is not necessary... you can see this in action at your local Humane Society or pet shelter... furthermore, when private charity is given, often the gifts are contingent on the charity behaving in certain ways... if an orphanage were to solicit charity, yet they squander those meager resources on opulence for the care-givers, donations would surely stop coming... but what happens to the orphans when it does?

likewise, with healthcare, we are often told that there are two choices... one, each person is responsible for their own fortunes... two, everyone must be responsible for the well-being of everyone else... but there are really more choices than this.

like in the Prisoner's Dilemma, each person can act selflessly or selfishly... if they act selflessly, they understand that other people are free to act selfishly... in economic terms, if everyone acts selflessly, the rate of return is equitable with the amount given... but if even one person acts selfishly, the rate of return on any charitable giving will be reduced... the more selfish actors, the lower the return... unless, of course, you yourself also act selfishly... then the rate of return is greater than what is given... but if everyone acts selfishly, the rate of return dwindles down to zero.



source:

The Economist explains economics: What is the Nash equilibrium and why does it matter? | The Economist

Prisoner's Dilemma

Tragedy of the Commons

The #YangGang can't do math

Andrew Yang talking to Joe Rogan:
  • "[The US is spending] $1.5 trillion on 126 welfare programs and Social Security."
  • "The real price tag [for UBI] is $1.8 trillion, if you say everyone who is 18 and up. Now for context, the entire US economy is now $20 trillion... and the Federal budget is $4 trillion."
  • "When you put money into people's hands, it doesn't disappear. It's going to go right back into the economy."
  • "Of the $1.8 trillion, we're going to get back (let's say) $800 billion in new tax receipts."
  • "We're going to save $100-200 billion on things like incarceration, homelessness services, and emergency room healthcare."
  • "So, if you look at the cost savings, and the value gains, and the economic growth, that actually gains you back about $1 trillion."
  • "The way you get back the last $800 billion... we need to put in a new tax that actually gets the American public a slice of every robot-truck mile, Amazon transaction, Facebook ad."
Let's do the math. (FUN!!!)

The civilian population, ages 16 and over and not in jail, is about 258,392,000. Half of which are currently receiving some sort of government assistance. Even if we assume none of them will receive UBI (which, according to Yang, many will get at least a partial payment), then we are paying out $1.5 trillion AT MINIMUM every year. So at least his estimate of $1.8 trillion is somewhat accurate.

But $1.8 trillion is almost half of the Federal budget of $4 trillion (estimated $4.41 trillion for 2019). Of that $4 trillion, $1.45 trillion is Social Security and $0.45 trillion is welfare. The UBI won't change that, as we are only considering the half of Americans who don't already receive government assistance. So we are adding $1.8 trillion of spending on TOP of the $1.9 trillion already being spent in government handouts. Our budget goes from $4.41 trillion to $6.31 trillion overnight.

"But we get that money back in tax receipts." No we don't. Of federal revenue, ad valorum taxes currently account for $1.6 trillion dollars. Our GDP is about $20 trillion, so ad valorum taxes are about 8% of our GDP. Even if we increase our GDP by the full $1.8 trillion, our ad valorum taxes would only raise $1.75 trillion; an increase of only $150 billion, not $800 billion.

Let's say we place an income tax on the UBI (which is stupid to tax government handouts, but it already happens in many instances). We currently get $2.4 trillion in income taxes, which is about 12% of GDP. We add the same $1.8 trillion, in its entirety, to the GDP and tax it at 12%, we get about $200 billion. So far, between ad valorum and income taxes, took back about $350 billion of the $1.8 trillion.

(EDIT) I just learned that Hauser's Law says:
In the United States, federal tax revenues since World War II have always been approximately equal to 19.5% of GDP, regardless of wide fluctuations in the marginal tax rate.
Ad valorum = 8% of GDP. Income tax = 12% of GDP. Total revenue = 20% of GDP. Damn I'm good (even if by accident).

Saying we're going to save money on incarceration by paying people is to deny reality. The people who already get government funding are the most likely to commit crimes. Yang said he's not going to be paying people UBI to those getting government money (or at least not more than his magic $1000/mo). So the people who are committing the most crimes wouldn't see any more money. No more money = no less recidivism. Therefore, $0 dollars gained.

As for saving on healthcare, we are making the logical leap that some of the UBI will be spent on health insurance and preventative healthcare. If it is, then it's not being put toward very much of the GDP, ad valorum taxes, or income taxes. But let's play along, shall we? Federal spending on healthcare, after you remove services like senior care and R&D, which will not change, we're spending about $500 billion federally. Most of this, $400 billion, goes to the states for services which would include those pesky emergency room visits. Even if we reduce this by half (which is overestimating, but let's be generous), we are only saving $200 billion.

So, with $150 billion from ad valorum taxes, $200 billion from income taxes, $0 dollars from reduced incarceration, and $200 billion from reduced healthcare costs, we have a grand total of $550 billion of the needed $1.8 trillion. We need to create new taxes, such as the Value-Added tax (VAT), and raise $1.25 trillion.

Where. Does. That. Money. Come. From?

This is where the logic breaks down between liberals and money. They think the following:

  1. Money put into people's hands goes into the economy.
  2. Money taken from them through taxes comes from magic fairy dust.


figures:

Income Taxes = 37% total 
Social Insurance Taxes = 23% total 
Ad valorem Taxes = 24% total 
Fees and Charges = 9% total 
Business and Other Revenue = 7% total

Income Taxes = $2.4 trillion 
Social Insurance Taxes = $1.5 trillion 
Ad valorem Taxes = $1.6 trillion 
Fees and Charges = $0.6 trillion 
Business and Other Revenue = $0.5 trillion 
Total Direct Revenue = $6.5 trillion

Income Taxes: Individual and corporate income taxes.
Social Insurance Taxes: FICA taxes, unemployment, disability taxes.
Ad valorem Taxes: Sales, excise and property taxes, licenses.
Fees and Charges: Fees for government services other than taxes.
Business and Other Revenue: Revenue from government businesses such as liquor stores and utilities.


source:
Joe Rogan Experience #1245 - Andrew Yang - Streamed live on Feb 12, 2019
Total Government Revenue in the United States - Fiscal Year 2019
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey - Civilian noninstitutional population - Age: 16 years and over
We've Crossed The Tipping Point; Most Americans Now Receive Government Benefits - Forbes - by Merrill Matthews - Jul 2, 2014
Total US Government Spending
US Gross Output for 2017 Released