Saturday, May 9, 2020

Masks work... sort of

So much to say; so little time. It's all about percentages.

N95 masks are 95% effective FOR THE WEARER against 0.3 micron (e.g. virus) particles. They don't protect your eyes (0% effective), which is another point of infection. Some N95's have a one-way valve. This is 0% effective FOR THE PUBLIC.

Surgical masks are are 95% effective FOR THE PUBLIC, and maybe 5% effective FOR THE WEARER.

Cloth masks are maybe 50%-75% effective FOR THE PUBLIC and basically 0% FOR THE WEARER.

So, if 100% of people wore just cloth masks, we might slow the spread by maybe 50%. If 50% of people wear surgical masks (everyone else wears nothing), we might slow the spread by about 45% (probably less). Likely, we'll have 25% of the people wearing a mix of cloth and surgical; so the spread might slow by maybe 10%.

If you are a carrier, masks prevent YOU from infecting others. If you aren't a carrier, masks are NOT EFFECTIVE. If you are concerned about YOU catching the virus, stay home or at least wear the most effective mask you can find plus "social distance" as much as you can.

All that being said, this virus WILL be passed around regardless of whether we wear masks or not. It's just a matter of how fast does it spread. The "R0" is the average number of people infected by each carrier. So, if the zero-mask rate is R0=3, wearing masks might make it R0=1.5. But, until a vaccine is available (don't hold your breath, folks), you will likely get infected. It's just a matter of how long until it's your turn.