Friday, October 9, 2015

the only people retiring are the young

Okay, I have done the math for y'all.

between 1984 and 2014, the total population of the US increased by about 83 million... the labor force (16 and older) in that time period increased by only 48 million... of that 48 million, 19 million were 55 years old and older... we LOST 2 million workers between the ages of 16 and 24... (maybe they retired?)

as a rule, the labor force steadily increases... part of this is the increase in population, but also trends in the economy... more women are entering the work force... youth work younger... retirement age getting older.

but from 2008 until now, the labor force has plateaued... it is true that between 2008 and 2014, the Under-55 demographic has not expanded as in the past... and the Over-55 demographic has indeed increased due to the Baby-Boomers... but the plateau is dramatic by the greater scope of the population... between 1984 and 2008, the labor force increased by 41 million; that's about 1.7 million per year... were that to continue from 2008, by 2014 there would have been an extra 10 million in the labor force... but that didn't happen.

so where did they go?... did 10 million retire?... as stated earlier, we've INCREASED the number of retirement age people in the labor force... in fact, an additional 11 million Over-55 were added to the work force between 2004 to 2014, while we only gained 3 million 16-54 year olds.

so, the argument that the Baby-Boomers are retiring, causing the slump in the labor force is false.


Sources:
Labor force projections to 2014: retiring boomers
GroupLevel (thousands)Change (thousands)
19841994200420141984–941994–20042004–14 
Total, 16 years and older113,544131,056147,401162,10017,51216,34514,699
16 to 24 years23,98921,61222,26822,158–2,377656–110
25 to 54 years74,66193,898102,122105,62719,2378,2243,505
55 years and older14,89415,54623,01134,3156527,46511,304

Population, totals
1984
Population - 235,825,000
2014
Population - 318,857,056

Population 55 Years and Over by Sex and Age: 2012
Under 55 - 229,349,000
Over 55 - 79,477,000
Population 55 Years and Over by Sex and Age: 2008
Under 55 - 229,014,000
Over 55 - 70,091,000

Civilian labor force participation rate (percent of population 16 years old and older)

Jan. 1984 - 63.9%
Jan. 2000 - 67.3% (peak)
Jan. 2008 - 66.2%
Jan. 2014 - 63.0%

Civilian labor force

Jan. 1984 - 112,209,000
Jan. 2000 - 142,267,000 (peak)
Jan. 2008 - 154,063,000
Jan. 2014 - 155,486,000

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