Tuesday, November 15, 2016

try strengthening the electoral college

with all of the wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth over the electoral college following the 2016 Presidential Election, it is highlighting the disparity of power between populous states and more rural states... it highlights the disparity of power between the House (the people's house) and the Senate (the state's house)... there are 435 representatives (divided according to the latest census) in the House, and there are 435 electoral college votes associated with their states... there are 100 senators (two per state) in the Senate, and there are 100 electoral college votes associated with their states... add three for the District of Columbia, and you have 538 electoral votes at stake during any Presidential Election.

so, the population of a state has a 2-to-1 advantage... having a state with a higher population density (or one large city like Las Vegas which overwhelms the rest of the state) causes this 2-to-1 advantage skew to a 25-to-1 advantage, such as in California... New York City controls the electoral votes of the entire state, and it's not even the state's capital city!

but, what if we were to make a small change, such as adding Senators to each state, thereby adding electoral votes, also?... how would that affect an election?

below, I have taken the electoral college votes of each state as they were cast in the 2016 Presidential Election and tallied them... then I added one vote per state and tallied them... then added two.

STATEEV-REV-DTOTAL VOTESR+1D+1R+2D+2
Alabama902,113,96310
11
Alaska30253,6244
5
Arizona1102,419,55512
13
Arkansas601,125,7787
8
California05510,147,220
5657
Colorado092,725,831
1011
Connecticut071,642,330
89
Delaware03441,535
45
D. C.03286,275
45
Florida2909,478,59030
31
Georgia1604,085,66717
18
Hawaii04428,827
56
Idaho40692,2165
6
Illinois0205,501,217
2122
Indiana1102,729,89612
13
Iowa601,564,4437
8
Kansas601,147,1437
8
Kentucky801,923,3469
10
Louisiana802,028,1969
10
Maine13736,6601415
Maryland0102,602,561
1112
Massachusetts0113,231,531
1213
Michigan16*04,792,24017*
18*
Minnesota0102,945,238
1112
Mississippi601,162,6077
8
Missouri1002,776,51911
12
Montana30492,6724
5
Nebraska50804,3866
7
Nevada061,122,990
78
New Hampshire04731,931
56
New Jersey0143,774,743
1516
New Mexico05792,328
67
New York0297,113,118
3031
North Carolina1504,688,82116
17
North Dakota30344,1564
5
Ohio1805,380,09619
20
Oklahoma701,452,9928
9
Oregon071,939,678
89
Pennsylvania2006,033,16121
22
Rhode Island04460,165
56
South Carolina902,103,02510
11
South Dakota30370,0474
5
Tennessee1102,490,79912
13
Texas3808,933,17939
40
Utah60905,4857
7
Vermont03315,065
45
Virginia0133,972,371
1415
Washington0122,927,086
1314
West Virginia50712,4196
7
Wisconsin1002,977,29511
12
Wyoming30255,7914
5
Total306232130,076,807336253365274
*Michigan has not been finally called, but only marginally affects the outcome.

the outcome of this thought experiment is to widen the gap between the parties... with the electoral college votes as they currently are, the gap between the parties is 74 votes, or 13.8% of the votes.

with only one additional electoral vote per state, the gap widens from 74 votes difference to 83 votes, but only changes it to 14.0% difference in the votes.

by adding two electoral votes per state, the gap goes from 74 votes difference 91 votes, which is only a 14.2% difference.

what this appears to show is that smaller states begin to have greater impact on the overall race... while each iteration only changes the electoral college results by 0.2%, it becomes evident that the candidates will need to appeal to a much more diverse group, and not solely rely on population dense areas of the country... instead of knowing the result of every election after the east coast polls close, we would need to see how many more states vote.

and, in a republic, isn't that what we want?
at 4:13 PM
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