The Son Of Man - Son Of God

Son of God or Man?

Huios Theou or Huios Anthropou?

Matthew 4:3 - The tempter came to Him and said, "If You are the Son of God, tell these stones to become bread." (Huios Theou) ["The Tempter" speaking to Jesus]

Matthew 4:6 - "If You are the Son of God," he said, "throw Yourself down." (Huios Theou) ["The Tempter" speaking to Jesus]

Matthew 8:20 - Jesus replied, "Foxes have dens and birds of the air have nests, but the Son of Man has no place to lay His head." (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 8:29 - “What do you want with us, Son of God?” they shouted. “Have you come here to torture us before the appointed time?” (Huie Theou) [Demons speaking to Jesus]

Matthew 9:5-6 - "Which is easier: to say, 'Your sins are forgiven,' or to say, 'Get up and walk?' But so that you may know that the Son of Man has authority on earth to forgive sins..." Then He said to the paralytic, "Get up, pick up your mat, and go home." (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 10:23 - When they persecute you in one town, flee to the next. Truly I tell you, you will not reach all the towns of Israel before the Son of Man comes. (Huios tou Anthropou)

Matthew 11:19 - The Son of Man came eating and drinking, and they say, 'Here is a glutton and a drunkard, a friend of tax collectors and sinners.' But wisdom is proved right by her deeds. (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 12:8 - For the Son of Man is Lord of the Sabbath. (Huios tou Anthropou)

Matthew 12:32 - Whoever speaks a word against the Son of Man will be forgiven, but whoever speaks against the Holy Spirit will not be forgiven, either in this age or in the one to come. (Huiou Anthropou)

Matthew 12:40 - For as Jonah was three days and three nights in the belly of the great fish, so the Son of Man will be three days and three nights in the heart of the earth. (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 13:37 - He replied, “The One who sows the good seed is the Son of Man. (Huios Antrhopou)

Matthew 13:41 - The Son of Man will send out His angels, and they will weed out of His kingdom every cause of sin and all who practice lawlessness. (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 14:33 - Then those who were in the boat worshiped him, saying, "Truly you are the Son of God." (Huios Theou)

Matthew 16:13 - When Jesus came to the region of Caesarea Philippi, he asked his disciples, "Who do people say the Son of Man is?" (Huion tou Anthropou)

Matthew 16:27 - For the Son of Man (Huios tou Anthropou) will come in His Father’s glory with His angels, and then He will repay each one according to what he has done. Truly I tell you, some who are standing here will not taste death before they see the Son of Man (Huion Anthropou) coming in His kingdom.

Matthew 17:9 - As they were coming down the mountain, Jesus commanded them, "Do not tell anyone about this vision until the Son of Man has been raised from the dead." (Huios Antrhopou)

Matthew 17:12 - But I tell you, Elijah has already come, and they did not recognize him, but have done to him everything they wished. In the same way the Son of Man is going to suffer at their hands. (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 17:22 - When they gathered together in Galilee, Jesus told them, "The Son of Man is about to be delivered into the hands of men." (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 19:28 - Jesus said to them, "Truly I tell you, in the renewal of all things, when the Son of Man sits on His glorious throne, you who have followed Me will also sit on twelve thrones, judging the twelve tribes of Israel. (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 20:18 - Look, we are going up to Jerusalem, and the Son of Man will be delivered over to the chief priests and scribes. They will condemn Him to death... (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 20:28 - just as the Son of Man did not come to be served, but to serve, and to give His life as a ransom for many. (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 24:26-27 - So if they tell you, 'There He is in the wilderness,' do not go out; or, 'Here He is in the inner rooms,' do not believe it. For just as the lightning comes from the east and flashes as far as the west, so will be the coming of the Son of Man. (Huiou Anthropou)

Matthew 24:30 - At that time the sign of the Son of Man (Huiou Anthropou) will appear in heaven, and all the tribes of the earth will mourn. They will see the Son of Man (Huion Anthropou) coming on the clouds of heaven, with power and great glory.

Matthew 24:36-39 - No one knows about that day or hour, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son (Huios), but only the Father. As it was in the days of Noah, so will it be at the coming of the Son of Man (Huiou Anthropou). For in the days before the flood, people were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, up to the day Noah entered the ark. And they were oblivious, until the flood came and swept them all away. So will it be at the coming of the Son of Man. (Huiou Anthropou)

Matthew 24:44 - For this reason, you also must be ready, because the Son of Man will come at an hour you do not expect. (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 25:31 - When the Son of Man comes in his glory, and all the angels with him, he will sit on his glorious throne. (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 26:2 - "You know that the Passover is two days away, and the Son of Man will be handed over to be crucified." (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 26:24 - The Son of Man will go just as it is written about Him, but woe to that man by whom He is betrayed. It would be better for him if he had not been born." (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 26:45 - Then He returned to the disciples and said, "Are you still sleeping and resting? Look, the hour is near, and the Son of Man is betrayed into the hands of sinners." (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 26:63 - Then the high priest said to Him, "I charge You under oath by the living God: Tell us if You are the Christ, the Son of God." (Huios Theou) [High priest speaking to Jesus]

Matthew 26:64 - "You have said it yourself," Jesus answered. "But I say to all of you, from now on you will see the Son of Man sitting at the right hand of Power and coming on the clouds of heaven." (Huios Anthropou)

Matthew 27:40 - "You who are going to destroy the temple and rebuild it in three days, save Yourself! If You are the Son of God, come down from the cross!" (Huios Theou) [Jews speaking to Jesus]

Matthew 27:43 - He trusts in God. Let God deliver Him now if He wants Him. For He said, 'I am the Son of God.' (Huios Theou) [A priest speaking about Jesus]

Matthew 27:54 - When the centurion and those with him who were guarding Jesus saw the earthquake and all that had happened, they were terrified and said, "Truly this was the Son of God." (Huios Theou) [Centurion speaking about Jesus]

Mark 1:1 - Introduces Jesus as the "Son of God" (Huios Theou)

Mark 5:7 - Demons (Legion) refer to Jesus as "Son of the Most High God" (Hypsistou Theou)

Luke 1:32 - Gabriel tells Mary that Jesus will be called "Son of the Most High" (Huios Hypsistou)

Luke 1:34-35 - And Mary said to the angel, “How will this be, since I am a virgin?” And the angel answered her, “The Holy Spirit will come upon you, and the power of the Most High will overshadow you; therefore the child to be borne will be called holy—the Son of God." (Huios Theou)

Luke 3:23-38 - Jesus's genealogy of "son of Joseph" through "son of Adam, son of God" (tou Theou)

Luke 4:34 - Demons refer to Jesus as "Holy one of God" (Hagios Theou)

Luke 4:41 - Demons refer to Jesus as "You are the Son of God" (Huios Theou)

John 5:25-27 - Truly, truly, I tell you, the hour is coming and has now come when the dead will hear the voice of the Son of God (Huiou Theou), and those who hear will live. For as the Father has life in Himself, so also He has granted the Son to have life in Himself. And He has given Him authority to execute judgment, because He is the Son of Man. (Huios Anthropou)

John 10:34-36 - Jesus replied, "Is it not written in your Law: ‘I have said you are gods’ [Psalm 82]? If he called them gods to whom the word of God came - and the Scripture cannot be broken - then what about the One whom the Father sanctified and sent into the world? How then can you accuse Me of blasphemy for stating that I am the Son of God?" (Huios Theou)

Jesus accused by a High Priest

Matthew 26:63-64 - Jewish high priest charged Jesus of claiming to be "the Christ" (Christos) and the "Son of God" (Huios Theou) - Jesus responds "You say so." (Sy eipas) "you will see the Son of Man..." (Huion Anthropou)

Mark 14:61-62 - Jewish high priest charged Jesus of claiming to be "the Christ" (Christos) and the "Son of the Blessed One" (Huios tou Eulogetos) - Jesus responds "I am and you will see the Son of Man..." (Huion Anthropou)

Luke 22:67-69 - Jewish high priest charged Jesus of claiming to be "the Christ" (Christos) - Jesus responds "You wouldn't believe" and "But now the Son of Man..." (Huios Anthropou)

Pontius Pilate questions Jesus

Matthew 27:11 - Pilate asks "Are you King of the Jews" - Jesus responds "You say so" (Sy legeis)

Mark 15:2 - Pilate asks "Are you King of the Jews" - Jesus responds "You say so" (Sy legeis)

Luke 23:3 - Pilate asks "Are you King of the Jews" - Jesus responds "You say so" (Sy legeis)

John 18:33-37 - Pilate asks "Are you King of the Jews" - Jesus responds "Do you ask" (Sy legeis) "or do others accuse me" [paraphrased] - Pilate asks "So are you a king" - Jesus responds "You say that I am a king" (Sy legeis)

Fulfillment of Isaiah

Matthew 1:21-23 - An angel of the Lord to Joseph: "She will bear a son, and you shall call his name Jesus, for he will save his people from their sins." All this took place to fulfill what the Lord had spoken by the prophet: "Behold, the virgin shall conceive and bear a son, and they shall call his name Immanuel."[Isaiah 7:14] (which means, God with us). (Theos Meth' Hemon)

Power is Transitive

Matthew 21:21-22 - “Truly I tell you,” Jesus replied, “if you have faith and do not doubt, not only will you do what was done to the fig tree, but even if you say to this mountain, ‘Be lifted up and thrown into the sea,’ it will happen. If you believe, you will receive whatever you ask for in prayer.”

Excess Mortality, Thread

Excess Mortality, Thread:

I have just discovered a major error in the #CoVid data of the NCHS Mortality surveillance data. This is all based on the official NCHSData49.csv as downloaded from here (original downloaded 12/15):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData49.csv

The data begins in week 40 of 2013 and ends week 49 of 2020. The data looks basically like this:

Yr | Wk | All Deaths | Pneumonia | Influenza | COVID | PIC*

*PIC = Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID deaths (sum of) 

The first COVID death listed was 2020 Week 6. Pneumonia death (P) = 3799. Influenza death (I) = 520. COVID death (C) = 1. PIC = 4320.

Math check: 3799+520+1=4320 ✅

The math adds up fine until 2020 Week 8. P=3699. I=566. C=4. PIC=4268.

Math check: 3699+566+4=4269 ❌

Here's this problem: Deaths are being classified as PIC deaths, as well as P/I/C deaths. So, in 2020 Week 8, someone was classified as a PIC death AND a P or I death, also.

Someone was counted twice.

But, it gets worse. As the COVID deaths accelerate, the double-counting does, too.

2020 Week 9 - 5 fewer PIC than P+I+C

2020 Week 10 - 19 fewer PIC than P+I+C

2020 Week 11 - 29 fewer PIC than P+I+C

2020 Week 12 - 257 fewer PIC than P+I+C

By 2020 Week 13, the NCHS was double counting 1479 excess deaths.

The following weeks vary from a low of 1548 excess deaths to a high of 7550.

By my calculations, there were 121,888 deaths double counted as COVID and as either Pneumonia or Influenza.

So, what do we do with this knowledge?

My assumption here is that few (if any at all) of these deaths were both COVID and Influenza. Likely, these deaths were COVID / Pneumonia. It would seem reasonable that a death could be from Pneumonia caused by COVID.

Or, perhaps some people died of Pneumonia AND had also tested positive for COVID, thereby were counted as both (even if the cause was the Pneumonia, alone).

So we have two likely scenarios, either (or both) could be true.

One, we have 121,888 fewer Pneumonia deaths.

Two, we have 121,888 fewer COVID deaths.

Possibly, we have a split of both fewer Pneumonia and COVID, but without individual case details, that may never be known.

However, I have discovered a strange anomaly elsewhere. In trying to verify numbers, I found the "NCHS Mortality Report for the Week Ending December 5, 2020 (Week 49) Data as of December 10, 2020"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/12112020/csv/nchs-mortality-report.csv

In this chart, they list Total Deaths, Influenza deaths, COVID deaths, and PIC deaths. These numbers all align with the previous chart. But Pneumonia deaths are not listed.

So I check my history to find the original link to the COVID data. It isn't there.

What do we do with this information?

Well, in reviewing the data, the 2020 Week 39 can be safely compared with the Week 39 data from prior years. Since COVID data for those years will be zero, we can make an apples-to-apples comparison of Pneumonia and Influenza.

Week 39 data:

2014 - P=3017; I=6

2015 - P=3057; I=6

2016 - P=2986; I=11

2017 - P=2888; I=19

2018 - P=2814; I=14

2019 - P=2780; I=16

2020 - P=4715; I=3

We can also compare the Week 40 through Week 39 totals of each "Season":

2013-'14 - P=182,691; I=4485

2014-'15 - P=193,237; I=8197

2015-'16 - P=178,002; I=3448

2016-'17 - P=179,621; I=6954

2017-'18 - P=180,137; I=15,620

2018-'19 - P=168,608; I=7175

2019-'20 - P=263,791; I=9415

It appears evident (to me) that we have found our error. Of the 121,888 duplicated deaths, it would seem reasonable that these were additional Pneumonia deaths who ALSO had COVID.

It would appear that we have excess Pneumonia deaths over the standard yearly average.

And it would be reasonable to assume that these additional Pneumonia deaths, who also had COVID, were likely COVID-induced-Pneumonia, rather than stand-alone Pneumonia cases which incidentally had COVID. Nothing else explains the excess mortality of Pneumonia cases.

Additional conclusions from the data -Overall mortality:

Comparing yearly mortality from ALL CAUSES, including PIC, there does seem to be a spike. But is the spike great enough to account for the COVID deaths, which should likely be in excess of the average?

Total "Season" Deaths:

2013-'14 - 2,580,853

2014-'15 - 2,750,884

2015-'16 - 2,697,072

2016-'17 - 2,790,278

2017-'18 - 2,835,734

2018-'19 - 2,831,233

2019-'20 - 3,142,232; COVID=203,899

Average deaths 2013-2019 "Seasons" = 2,747,674

2020 "Season" deaths less COVID = 2,938,333

It seems reasonable to assume that overall mortality is in a reasonable range for the year if you exclude the excess deaths caused by COVID.

What can we say about the effect COVID has had on Influenza deaths?

Some might say the Influenza deaths are down due to COVID.

Some would assume this is due to the mask wearing, social distancing, and hand washing.

Others would assume this is due to nefarious counting.

Well, if you compare the total "Season" cases of Influenza between 2019 Week 40 and 2020 Week 39, you would see we're actually up a little from the average of 7646 (2013-2019) to 9415 for the 2019-2020 "Season".

What I would like to see is if there is any rise in excess death from suicide and homicide to see if it correlates to the COVID lockdowns. And also if those excess deaths would offset the COVID deaths in any fashion.

But, I do not have those numbers. Yet.

source:

https://twitter.com/rvolt24/status/1343975559668367360

Excess Mortality, Thread:
I have just discovered a major error in the #CoVid data of the NCHS Mortality surveillance data. This is all based on the official NCHSData49.csv as downloaded from here (original downloaded 12/15):https://t.co/VkzgNfDZO6

— Señor Hilaria (@rvolt24) December 29, 2020

I know you are but what am I?

I've often heard the phrase, "When I became a man I put away childish things," but I never really knew its source. It seems reasonable. It seems accurate. We all begin in a state of childhood, and most of us grow into adulthood.

So, when I came across this again, it included some context I had not heard. It went like this:

"When I became a man I put away childish things, including the fear of childishness and the desire to be very grown up."

Well, that's a decidedly different spin on it. How do I put away childish things yet do not fear being childish? How does a man grow up without retaining the desire to be grown up?

Where does this come from, and what does it mean?

It took very little research to find it. This is from C. S. Lewis, the prolific writer, famous for his children's books in the Chronicles of Narnia series. But he is also a very well known Christian writer; some might consider an important Christian philosopher.

I also recalled the Bible mentioned a strikingly similar phrase in a New Testament verse.

"When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put the ways of childhood behind me." - 1 Corinthians 13:11

This seems to be very straightforward. Once one becomes a man, childhood ends. So how can such a well-versed Christian writer and thinker like Lewis say something which seems so contradictory to the Bible he knows so well?

The answer is, of course, found in scripture, too. In the same chapter, even. The entire chapter provides the context. Love.

"If I have the gift of prophecy and can fathom all mysteries and all knowledge, and if I have a faith that can move mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing." - 1 Cor 13:2

The entire chapter talks about what you can have or can do, but without love, you have nothing. But what is love? How can you have love? Again, the verse tells you.

"Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud. It does not dishonor others, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. Love does not delight in evil but rejoices with the truth. It always protects, always trusts, always hopes, always perseveres." - 1 Cor 13:4-7

I'm sure you are asking, "How does love and childishness relate?" Ah, but you've already missed the point. Lewis says to, "put away childish things," but also to "put away" the "fear of childishness." Childishness is centered around unbridled love. The love of the new, or the love of the well known. Just as a child loves a new toy, they also love their old toys. They love a new friend, and they love their 'old' friends. Children are filled with the purest joy. Are we to fear joy? Fear love?

Lewis understood that to fear childishness was to reject love.

Likewise, desiring to be grown is what only children do. They need to grow and mature, so they set about becoming an adult with a seriousness only children can have. Adults have no need for this seriousness. We are already grown. What would adults seek to become - older? We have obtained the heights; we should admire the view.

If our goal is to be seen as adult by other adults, to gain their approval, we aren't seeking love. Love does not boast. Love is not proud. And if other adults judge us for our 'adulthood', then they do not love us.

We should be joyful in our achievement, but we should not fear childishness. Childishness brought us joy once, and it should bring us joy any time we wish.

And here I found the full context of Lewis's quote. And it shows his complete understanding of the scripture about being an adult and about putting away our childish things. It isn't childishness we are to put away. It is the fear of being childish. When we put away the fear, we replace it with love. We cherish childishness.

"Critics who treat adult as a term of approval, instead of as a merely descriptive term, cannot be adult themselves. To be concerned about being grown up, to admire the grown up because it is grown up, to blush at the suspicion of being childish; these things are the marks of childhood and adolescence. And in childhood and adolescence they are, in moderation, healthy symptoms.

Young things ought to want to grow. But to carry on into middle life or even into early manhood this concern about being adult is a mark of really arrested development. When I was ten, I read fairy tales in secret and would have been ashamed if I had been found doing so. Now that I am fifty I read them openly. When I became a man I put away childish things, including the fear of childishness and the desire to be very grown up." - C. S. Lewis, Of Other Worlds: Essays and Stories, Part I: 'On Three Ways of Writing For Children'

Walk me through this “Safety Third” thing - re-blog

Ok, I’m going to need you to walk me through this whole “Safety Third” thing one more time. How can safety be anything other than first? Are you seriously suggesting that saving the economy is more important than saving lives? Now, more than ever, safety must be first, whatever the cost! Roger Martin

Hi Roger

What I suggested in my post last week, was that Safety is not a thing to be “ranked,” but rather, a state of mind, to be applied as needed to a myriad of situations in varying amounts. But if we were to rank it, it would rarely be “first.” Were safety truly “first,” no level of risk would ever be encouraged or permitted, and no work would ever get done. Or play, for that matter.

Obviously, this does not mean that Safety isn’t a critical part of living. It is. And there are times, like right now, when extraordinary circumstances compel us to temporarily elevate safety above everything else – even our individual liberty. Which is why I’m hunkered down in my bunker, waiting for the all clear. But the notion of telling people that safety is always first, no matter the cost, is not only untrue, it’s counter-intuitive.

On Dirty Jobs, I was struck by the number of safety professionals who repeatedly insisted that nothing was more important to them, than my personal safety. “Your safety,” they said, over and over again, “is our top priority.”

I usually heard these words moments before I was invited to walk up the cable of a suspension bridge, or field test a stainless-steel shark suit, or climb into a bosuns chair to wash windows at the top of a high-rise. I still hear them today from pilots who invite me to strap myself in as they attempt to defy gravity in a pressurized aluminum tube that travels through the air at 600mph. And now Roger, I’m hearing them from you. You’re telling me safety must always be first, no matter the cost.

Here’s an honest question – would you be OK if the government reduced the posted speed limits by 50%, required all motorists to wear helmets, and outlawed all left turns? If not, why not? Doing so would save almost 40,000 lives a year.

The reason most people would not agree to those new protocols, is because we’ve already come to terms with the human cost of driving the way we want to drive. We believe, collectively, that 40,000 annual deaths are an acceptable price to pay. It’s a steep price, but we pay it, year after year after year. Sure, we’ve made things much [s]afer with safety belts, air bags, ABS brakes, and so forth. But we haven’t done ALL we can to eliminate traffic fatalities. Nor will we. Because when it comes to driving, safety isn’t first.

I’m not trying to be provocative, or insensitive. As I wrote on my first day of quarantine, I have two parents in the at-risk category, and I’m terribly worried about their well-being. But assigning a cost to preserving human life is hardly a new calculus, or a sign of misanthropy. We humans are constantly deciding which calamity to worry about, which disaster to panic over, and which tragedy to outright ignore. Just yesterday, 24,000 people died of starvation. The same will happen tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow, and the day after that. Over nine million a year die of hunger related illnesses. Why is this not a global emergency? Why doesn’t cable news report these tragic deaths every minute of every day, like they do with this virus?

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been inundated with facts, but very little context or perspective. And that lack of context is prompting more and more people to ask the same question I posed here last week – what if the cost of the cure is greater than the cost of the disease? It’s not an unreasonable question, or a heartless one, but people don’t like to hear it. Last night on Tucker Carlson, a former Lt. Governor from Texas named Dan Patrick learned that the hard way.

“Let’s get back to work,” said Patrick, who emphasized that he is a grandparent. “Those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves, but don’t sacrifice the country. Don’t do that. Don’t ruin this great American dream.”

The backlash has been brutal.

“This crisis is really laying bare the extent to which we are ruled by completely craven psychopaths,” tweeted Micah Uetricht, managing editor at Jacobin magazine.

Democratic Texas state Rep. Donna Howard, a grandparent herself, told Dallas Morning News that “the idea that the only option is for us to sacrifice ourselves is really incredulous to me.”

Texas state Rep. Gene Wu also ripped Patrick’s remarks in a tweet late Monday. “This statement is repulsive and unfortunately reflective of the attitude many Texas Republicans have regarding people and money.”

What do you guys think? Is it repulsive to suggest that a country’s economy might be more important than saving the lives of thousands of its citizens?

In the comments below, I’ll likely be criticized for comparing this virus to other deadly diseases and hazardous pursuits, but that’s not what I’ve done. I’m simply wondering why the safety of our fellow man is such a fungible thing? It’s a sincere query. No one today is suggesting we should change the way we drive in order to save 40,000 lives, even though we easily could. But many seem to believe our entire economy should be sacrificed in order to save as many lives as possible. People who, like you, seem to believe that safety is always the most important thing.

Anyway, to answer your question, Safety Third was my slightly subversive attempt to start an honest conversation around occupational safety back in 2009, and to acknowledge the unintended consequences of exaggerating the importance of safety on the job. For what it’s worth, it worked. Attached is a short video that spells it out for you.

And here’s one of a hundred articles written by various safety professionals who actually agrees with me. https://bit.ly/2vL04O0

And here’s another one, just so you know I’m not alone… https://bit.ly/2Ue99bF

Be careful out there…

Mike

 

---

Walk me through this “Safety Third” thing - by Mike Rowe, March 24, 2020

Covid Math: Revisited

I first posted "Covid Math" on April 13th of 2020. These were using the statistics known at the time to determine the potential severity of #Coronavirus / #CoVid19 / Sars-CoV-2 / China-Virus, or whatever you want to call it. I am returning to this post in September, after five months, to see how things have held up as predictions. Feel free to read the previous posts and the comparative backgrounds of influenza and H1N1, as I won't be rehashing that data here.

"Finally, what we know of Coronavirus so far"

Again, we are going to use the same data point, but update it with what we know now. So, we still don't know the assumed cases, but we might be able to estimate it better. We have really accurate confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Note: There are still questions about the number of deaths. Some are saying many deaths are not attributable to Covid. Recently, the CDC made a statement that only 6% of recorded Covid deaths were strictly caused by Covid, and the other 94% had comorbidities. I will NOT be separating these at this time. My rationale is that we don't know with any high degree of certainty that those comorbidities would have killed the person if they had not contracted Covid. If they would have lived six months or six years with those other issues, then Covid hastened their demise, and I will not try to parse which issue was the ultimate cause of their death. For instance: an obese person with diabetes and heart issues is likely to die early. If they contract Covid and die, was it the Covid, the diabetes, or the heart issue? If they didn't have those other issues, would they have survived Covid? These are questions we are unable to answer at this time, and we likely will never have an answer. Deaths = deaths.

Covid-19 numbers (as of 9/9/2020):

Medical visits (confirmed tests) - 6,334,158

Hospitalizations - 379,866

Deaths - 189,972

Population (est.) - 318,000,000

In the previous post, I extrapolated out the hospitalizations for a year to be about 374,524. Yet here we are at only 8 months and we have already exceeded that estimate. If we (again) do a simple (linear) extrapolation to one year, we will have had 569,799 hospitalizations. That is nearly twice my original estimate.

If we had extrapolated, again simply (linear), the previous deaths of 22,154 would have been 88,616 deaths, which we are FAR past that number. So we see that the numbers we had early on had not proceeded in a linear fashion, which is to be expected with a virus with a Rate of Infection (R0) of greater than 1.0.

If we compare these numbers back to the H1N1 and seasonal flu, we need to compare the death rates:

Known cases:

Seasonal flu - 38,230 deaths / 29,220,523 cases = 0.13%

H1N1 - 12,469 deaths / 60,800,000 cases = 0.02%%

Covid - 189,972 / 6,334,158= 3.0%

Hospitalized deaths:

Seasonal flu - 38,230 deaths / 496,912 hospitalizations = 7.69%

H1N1 - 12,469 deaths / 274,304 hospitalizations = 4.55%

Covid - 189,972 / 379,866 = 50%

To compare this to the previous post's estimates, the Covid case mortality was previously calculated at 1.98%, and it is now at 3.0%. An additional one-percent morality is pretty serious.

If we continue to assume that cases will continue to increase for the remainder of the year (or until a widely accepted vaccine is available), then we will have to make an assumption of total cases. Again, I will use simple (linear) extrapolation, even though it has been shown to be inaccurate. The reason for this is because new cases appear to be trending downward, so hopefully the estimate will turn out to be higher than what we end up with. I hope.

Extrapolated 1-year total cases: 9,501,237

Extrapolated 1-year hospitalizations: 569,799

Extrapolated 1-year deaths: 284,958

This is FAR below the worst-case estimates of the April post. We will have far fewer than the 80 million cases predicted. It will be far below the H1N1 60 million cases. It will be fewer than the 29 million cases of seasonal influenza. But because the death rate is higher than anticipated, the case fatality rate will be higher than the original extrapolation, yet lower than the worst-case estimates.

---

source:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_coronavirus_hospitalizations

You can kiss my ass - A study in music, theater, and history

 Mozart.

That's right. We're starting with Mozart. There is no better place to begin a story like this than with Mozart.

Anyone with a name like "Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart" is bound for greatness. Anyone christened with the name "Johannes Chrysostomus Wolfgangus Theophilus Mozart" will then rightfully change his name, if only for brevity's sake. For it's not the destiny of "Johannes Mozart" to become great.  No, it's the destiny of one who chooses "Wolfgang", adds to it "Amadeus" (love God), to become great. And part of that destiny is to be extremely non-conformist.

And when this person writes music, because of course he'll write music, he will write some of the greatest masterpieces known to mankind. Music the likes of:

• Serenade No. 13 - "Eine kleine Nachtmusik" (A Little Night Music)
• Symphony No. 41 - "Jupiter"
• Clarinet Concerto
• The Magic Flute
• Requiem
• "Leck Mich Im Arsch" (Lick me in the ass)

There's no need to read that again. You absolutely read that last one correctly. As catchy titles go, that's pretty good. I doubt you'll forget that any time soon. You might even be looking it up online to hear how baudy, even raunchy, that tune might be. Well, I'm sorry, but you may be disappointed. Unless you speak German, it's your standard Mozart fare.

But even if you don't speak German fluently, you might catch words and phrases that make you wonder what it's all about. As if you weren't wondering already.

Leck mich im arsch! Goethe, Goethe! Götz von Berlichingen! Zweiter Akt.

Well, we know the title of the song. But what does Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, a German writer who is most well known for his celebrated drama about the devil, Faust, have to do with Mozart and the licking of hindquarters? Well, it has nothing to do with the fact that each of them have the name "Wolfgang" as part of their name, but that's a wonderful coincidence.

No, it has to do with a successful 1773 drama by Goethe about an adventurer-poet named Gottfried. He was known as Götz of the Iron Hand. This drama was based on a real-life military man named Götz von Berlichingen. Thus, we have divined the source of the other name and it's connection to Goethe. But who was Götz ?

Götz was a German Imperial Knight from the 1500's who had an iron hand. I don't mean this figuratively or metaphorically. He lost his hand in battle when he was only 24 and a cannon shot forced his own sword against him. He continued going to battle with the help of a iron prosthetic that allowed him to grip a shield or his horse's reins. He retired from battle 40 years later and died at age 81. He was married twice and had seven sons and three daughters. Apparently losing an arm did not hinder him in any way.

Needless to say, Götz was a bad-ass and more of a man than any of us reading this today.

To put a finer point on the bad-assery of Götz, we must understand a part of Goethe's drama about him, to which Mozart references. Mozart proclaims, "Zweiter Akt!", which means, "the Second Act", again referring to Goethe's drama about Götz of the Iron Hand. While Mozart was mistaken, and the important dialogue takes place in the Third Act, we are quite sure about, without any doubt, which portion he is referring us to.

Götz, in the drama, is under siege by the Imperial Army. He is caught inside his castle and surrounded by the enemy. The captain of the army comes to Götz, who is at a window looking down on the multitude. The captain looks up and asks him to surrender. Götz of the Iron Hand replies as only a man with an iron hand (and possibly brass balls) could. The line goes something like this:

"Me, surrender! At mercy! Whom do you speak with? Am I a robber! Tell your captain that for His Imperial Majesty, I have, as always, due respect. But he, tell him that, he can lick me in the arse!"

Now, we have no way of knowing if this ever happened, or if it is simply a fantasy of Goethe. But in 1525, Götz fought in the German Peasants' War against the Ecclesiastical Princes of the Holy Roman Empire, during which time he returned to his castle. The Holy Roman Empire won the war, and Götz was called to account for his actions and imprisoned. I doubt there was such a siege on his castle, but there may very well been a frank conversation occur, nonetheless.

Götz wrote an autobiography which wasn't published for over one hundred and seventy years, until 1731. The Biography of Sir Götz von Berlichingen was the basis for Goethe's 1773 play, and the subsequent lyrics for Mozart's lesser known, but equally important, songs.

So that is the story behind the music, the theater, and the history of Götz of the Iron Hand. And if you didn't like it, you can "leck mich im arsch!"

Sorry To Ruin A Good Story

OH SHIT. BLM isn't going to like what I just found out.

I used ONLY publicly available information; including census data, arrest records, federal resources, and independent sources to find this out.

White people and black people have fatal police shootings at the SAME RATE as each other compared to their arrests. That means, if you get arrested, you have an equal chance of being shot by police, REGARDLESS of being black or white.

You read that right.

If you get arrested and WHITE, you have an 11.33 per 100,000 arrests of being shot by the police.
If you get arrested and BLACK, you have a 10.75 per 100,000 arrests of being shot by the police.
You are equivalently equal (if not slightly less) likely; black or white.

These numbers are averaged over 2015 through 2018. Data is incomplete for 2019, and 2020 isn't over.

---

source:
Demographics of the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

US Census
http://data.census.gov

FBI – Uniform Crime Reporting
Arrests by Race and Ethnicity, 2018
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/tables/table-43

Bureau of Justice Statistics
Contacts Between Police and the Public, 2015
https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpp15.pdf

Fatal Encounters Dot Org
Downloaded 2020-06-12
https://fatalencounters.org/spreadsheets/

Mapping Police Violence
Downloaded 2020-06-12
https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/s/MPVDatasetDownload.xlsx

Washington Post database of fatal shootings by a police officer; 2015-2020
Downloaded 2020-06-17
https://github.com/washingtonpost/data-police-shootings

Masks work... sort of

So much to say; so little time. It's all about percentages.

N95 masks are 95% effective FOR THE WEARER against 0.3 micron (e.g. virus) particles. They don't protect your eyes (0% effective), which is another point of infection. Some N95's have a one-way valve. This is 0% effective FOR THE PUBLIC.

Surgical masks are are 95% effective FOR THE PUBLIC, and maybe 5% effective FOR THE WEARER.

Cloth masks are maybe 50%-75% effective FOR THE PUBLIC and basically 0% FOR THE WEARER.

So, if 100% of people wore just cloth masks, we might slow the spread by maybe 50%. If 50% of people wear surgical masks (everyone else wears nothing), we might slow the spread by about 45% (probably less). Likely, we'll have 25% of the people wearing a mix of cloth and surgical; so the spread might slow by maybe 10%.

If you are a carrier, masks prevent YOU from infecting others. If you aren't a carrier, masks are NOT EFFECTIVE. If you are concerned about YOU catching the virus, stay home or at least wear the most effective mask you can find plus "social distance" as much as you can.

All that being said, this virus WILL be passed around regardless of whether we wear masks or not. It's just a matter of how fast does it spread. The "R0" is the average number of people infected by each carrier. So, if the zero-mask rate is R0=3, wearing masks might make it R0=1.5. But, until a vaccine is available (don't hold your breath, folks), you will likely get infected. It's just a matter of how long until it's your turn.

Covid Math

Twitter Thread: bit.ly/CovidMath

Why do y'all make ME do the #Math all the time? I'm so f'n #TiredOfBeingRight.

Why we SHOULD take precautions against #CoVid19 #Coronavirus and how is it NOT LIKE the yearly flu numbers - A Thread:

First, "The Flu":
Best numbers available are 2016-2017. More recent numbers are still in the 'estimate' category, so we'll use the '16-'17 numbers as baseline and reference more recent data as estimates only.

All data is US only, unless noted otherwise.

[All text in brackets are later edits.]

2016-2017 Flu data:
Symptomatic (assumed) - 29,220,523
Medical visits (confirmed) - 13,633,446
Hospitalizations - 496,912
Deaths - 38,230
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html

Population estimate 2016 - 318 million

9% of the population was symptomatic
4% were confirmed medical visits
[0.15%] hospitalized

Of confirmed cases, mortality rate is 0.28%.
Of assumed cases, mortality rate is 0.13%

Second, "H1N1 2009 swine flu" (US only):
Assumed cases: 60.8 million cases
Medical visits [(confirmed)]: Unknown (like Covid19, testing data is incomplete)
Hospitalizations: 274,304
Deaths: 12,469

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

Population estimate 2009 - 308 million

20% of the population was symptomatic
0.09% hospitalized

Of assumed cases, mortality rate is 0.021%.

If we assume, like seasonal flu, confirmed mortality is 2X's assumed, the baseline H1N1 "confirmed" mortality would be about 0.04%.

We can already see that H1N1 wasn't that bad compared to seasonal flu. Or was it?

To understand this, you have to understand how many strains of flu virus are out there, in "the wild" if you will. There are four basic types: A, B, C, D.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm

Types A & B are your typical human flu viruses. Type C can sometimes cause mild symptoms. Type D mainly affects cattle.

Type A is split into 2 subtypes: H & N. There are 18 H types and 11 N types. Of these combinations, only 131 subtypes have been detected in nature thus far.

These 131 subtypes can be further broken down into 'groups' and 'subgroups'. But for sake of discussion, we will only focus on Type A's 131 subtypes.

Type B is split into 2 lineages: Y & V. These also can be divided by group and subgroup.

Since Type D affects cattle, we will disregard it.
Since Type C is often mild, we will disregard it.
Since Type B is rarely known to cause pandemic, even though severe, we will disregard it.

So, of the 38,230 "flu" deaths, these are attributable to those 131 strains of Type A.

So when you consider that H1N1 was "only" 32% as deadly as the seasonal flu, what you're really saying is that ONE virus is 32% as deadly as [all] 131 viruses [combined].

Or, more accurately, H1N1 (12,469 deaths) is 42X's more deadly than a single seasonal flu virus (292 deaths per virus).

Finally, what we know of the Coronavirus so far:
Symptomatic (assumed) - unknown (incomplete data)
Medical visits (confirmed) - 558,599 (as of 4/12/2020)
Hospitalizations - 93,631
Deaths - 22,154

Again, we will assume some things. One, these numbers are accurate (something we'll discuss later). And two, that symptomatic cases are roughly 2X's the confirmed cases. Each of these assumptions will be vetted later.

Population estimate 2020 - 318 million

0.35% are already symptomatic [(assumed)] at three months in.
0.18% have already been confirmed.
0.029% have already been hospitalized.

[These numbers are for only three months.] Simple extrapolation to a full year means we are looking at [0.12%], or [374,524] people being hospitalized.

So far, it looks like H1N1. Maybe even a little better, right? Not so fast.

Of the confirmed cases, the mortality rate is 3.97%.

Remember, we are assuming symptomatic cases is 2X's the confirmed. So the mortality rate of all symptomatic cases would be 1.98%.

Recap:
Seasonal flu symptomatic mortality rate: 0.13%
H1N1 symptomatic mortality rate: 0.21%
Covid19 symptomatic mortality rate: 1.98%

Do you see the difference yet?

*Elephant in the room*
The numbers.

Here we'll address assumption #1; the accuracy of the numbers.

Many have been saying the numbers are inflated. And they may well be. Some of the reasons for this belief include: inaccurate reporting, intentional skewing, and outright lying.

Inaccurate reporting:
Yes. This is a dynamic situation. We may never know 100% of all the data. Even the seasonal flu data is subject to this. The H1N1 data shows that much of the earliest numbers were full of errors and assumptions. Testing for a novel virus isn't error free.

As with any statistical analysis, you have to bake inaccuracies into the cake. You have to try to keep all of your assumptions the same across data sets. So, we assume there are inaccuracies in the Covid19 data, but we hope similar inaccuracies exist in the H1N1 and flu data.

And we know they both do have similar inaccuracies. Not everyone who gets the seasonal flu reports it. Even of those who see a doctor for it, few get tested. They are often diagnosed without confirmation.

Likewise, there are reports of diagnosis of Covid19 without testing.

Intentional skewing:
There is money to be made from inflating Covid19 numbers. But again, this is baked into the cake. However, the intentional skewing may be higher in the US and other countries because of the governments throwing money at those "confirmed" cases.

So, let's compare to other countries. We know China has bad data, so we'll throw them out from the start. So let's use several others:
Italy (worst case)
UK (similar to US)
Turkey (possible control group)
India
Malaysia
Japan
Singapore (best case)

We need to compare three things:
Confirmed cases
Confirmed rate (percent of population)
Confirmed mortality rate

Italy: 156363 - 0.26% - 12.7%
UK: 89554 - 0.13% - 12.7%
Turkey: 61049 - 0.073% - 1.96%
India: 9635 - 0.0007% (!) - 3.43%
Malaysia: 4817 - 0.015% - 1.60%
Japan: 7370 - 0.006% - 1.67%
Singapore: 2532 - 0.044% - 0.31%

Analysis:
The confirmed rate as a percent of the population is ALL OVER THE PLACE. In Italy and the UK, you see 'confirmed' cases at rates similar to the US (~0.18%). In all other countries, the rates are much lower. So this appears to confirm that the reported cases are high.

But how high? Can we tell from the other numbers?

First, we have to assume some other factors. One: Turkey, India, and Malaysia likely have terrible reporting and tracking. Their numbers are suspect. If you look at India, their reported cases are staggeringly low.

Another anomaly with India is their death rate is very high for having so few reported. I would bet that all of India's numbers are bad. So we will leave India aside for now.

What about Italy and UK? Their reported cases rate is similar to the US, but mortality is HIGH!

The death rates in Italy and UK are a factor of 10 higher than the US. It is VERY likely that there is something wrong with their numbers. We might assume they would be higher due to some outside factors, but not 10X's more.

What about Japan and Singapore?

Japan and Singapore already have a high level of social distancing and widespread mask use. It would stand to reason that their numbers would be low. And their reported rate is very low. Their reported rate is a factor of 10 lower than the US and the UK.

But their death rates are not so dissimilar to the US, Turkey, and even Malaysia. Singapore has a very low death rate; possibly the lowest in the world. Is there misreporting on the other side? Perhaps Singapore's semi-socialist governance wants to inflate their healthcare?

However, even if we take Singapore's unusually low death rate, it is still higher than the 2009 H1N1 death rate.

More likely, the correct death rate is something along the rate of Japan (which is similar enough to Turkey and Malaysia to give confidence).

[Outright lying:]
[It's absolutely possible that countries are lying about their results. China is a prime example. But the question becomes, who is lying and which direction are thy skewing the numbers? The US, UK, and Italy may be lying to make their numbers higher. Japan and Singapore may be lying to make their numbers lower. But again, this has to be backed into the cake.]

What does that mean?

A mortality rate of 1.6% [(Malaysia / Japan)] is 7.5X's the rate of the H1N1.
And it's 12X's the rate of ALL seasonal flu viruses, combined (remember, there are 131 varieties)!

As for the assumption that symptomatic cases are roughly 2X's the number of confirmed cases, we can make the assumption in any direction, and the outcome will be affected very little. Once we have determined the mortality rate of the virus, very little else matters.

For instance, let's assume the number of symptomatic cases are 5X's (instead of 2X's) the confirmed cases, and the mortality rate is that of Japan (1.67%):

US's assumed symptomatic cases: 2,792,995
Expected deaths: 46,643

That's 2X's the known deaths (which we have already assumed is inflated). If the actual deaths are lower than the reported, then the US mortality rate would be lower than Japan. Does that make sense?

Let's assume it does (which it doesn't): Then what?

If the US assumed symptomatic cases are really that high, and the actual deaths are lower (let's say by half):

11,077 deaths / 2,792,995 cases = 0.04% mortality rate

That is STILL DOUBLE the rate of the H1N1!!!

Recap:
We have QUINTUPLED the symptomatic cases, and we have halved the REPORTED deaths.

And Covid19 is still twice as deadly as anything we've dealt with in a century.

So, even if we play the game of "The numbers are wrong", we still come out with a pandemic on the scale of the 1918 Spanish Flu.

But if we take a realistic look at the numbers being reported around the world, we are looking at a 1.5% - 3% mortality rate.

If we don't act like Covid19 is a big deal (which it is), and we behave like we did under the H1N1 or Ebola pandemics, we will end up with 80 million infected in the US alone. And with a mortality rate of a conservative 1.5%, that's 1,200,000 dead in a year.

Rambling on American Conservatism

I think I figured out why Jeremy Boreing's "Conservatism / American Liberalism" point of view gets under my skin so much.

Jeremy once decried the 'groypers' who trolled 'conservatives' over homosexuals. In doing so, he said "American Conservatives want to conserve American Liberalism". This is a callback to the foundations of the Republican party where they were considered the liberals of the day.

Which is why many modern 'liberals' claim there was a Party-Switch™. (Spoiler: there was none.) The Republicans were pro-abolition and pro-human-rights and were for the government helping those who needed help. These were seen as 'liberal' for the day.

Modern 'liberals' call this 'big-government' and equate it to FDR-style programs. (It isn't.) But the original Republicans definitely did NOT believe in what Jeremy calls 'American liberalism'.

One HUGE proof that early Republicans were not no-government libertarian types was when they had the federal government enforce abolition on the southern states against their will. If I recall, they were kind of forceful about it.

"I guess it’s popular on the right these days to decry libertarians anytime you don’t like one of the many consequences of freedom." - Jeremy

Consequences of freedom can be ugly. This is why we are not a democracy, but a republic. It's for the protection of the minority group.

"Do you believe this is the same culture it was ten or fifty or a hundred years ago?" - Jeremy

Surprisingly, it's not that different. It's just people keep redefining terms (like 'conservative').

I've been putting scare-quotes around 'liberalism' because they're not really liberal. They're authoritarian progressives. And many 'conservatives' are actually libertarians or even anarchists.

Which is why we have such trouble discussing EVERY issue. Words should have meanings.

Jeremy says we "cannot and should not" use government to enforce morality. Then he says we can on abortion because: reasons.

While I agree on abortion, it's the same on any cultural issue. What people do affects society, so society has a stake in what people do.

Progressives laugh when we discuss 'slippery-slopes' in every argument. And within only a couple of years, every slippery slope has occurred and we have to fight the same battles again.

But if we had only used politics and government to regulate this before, we wouldn't have to.

Saying politics will change if we change our culture ignores the fact that culture unbridled will change our politics whether we want it to or not. It's they tyranny of the majority and the tragedy of the commons, wrapped into one disaster.

And then people like Jeremy say, "but Conservatism is American Liberalism" while the circling of the drain continues.

Rambling on the Trump-Ukraine fiasco

The Trump conversation with Zelensky regarding the investigation of Burisma and the Bidens has nothing to do with the 2016 election nor the 2020 upcoming elections.

It has to do with Ukraine corruption and the 'Orange Revolution' of 2004 where the election was rigged for Yanukovych. One of Yanukovych's cronies was Zlochevskiy, who was appointed as Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources and then as the Deputy Secretary of Economic and Social Security. Yanukovych was ousted in 2014 in the Ukrainian Revolution.

Zlochevskiy is the founder of Burisma, the largest oil and natural gas company in Ukraine. Burisma hired Hunter Biden in 2014, three months after the revolution.

Zlochevskiy fled the Ukraine at the end of 2014 under suspicion of self-enrichment while in office.

In 2015, Shokin was appointed Ukraine's Prosecutor General. He established an anti-corruption department. Shokin was accused of stalling investigations into Yanukovych's allies (such as Zlochevskiy). In February of 2016, Shokin raided the home of Zlochevskiy. Later that same month, a Burisma representative in the US (Blue Star Strategies) contacted the US State Department about the Burisma investigation.

In March, the then VP, Joe Biden, threatened to withhold $1 billion in US backed loans unless Shokin was fired. Later that month, Shokin was dismissed.
Shokin was going to be fired for NOT investigating Yanukovych's allies.

Zlochevskiy was a Yanukovych ally.
Zlochevskiy founded Burisma.
When Shokin began investigating Burisma, Biden had him fired, citing corruption.

THAT is why Burisma was being investigated for corruption and how Biden was directly involved.

Why you should always buy the men’s version of almost anything - Re-Blog

Radio Flyer sells a red scooter for boys and a pink scooter for girls. Both feature plastic handlebars, three wheels and a foot brake. Both weigh about five pounds.

The only significant difference is the price, a new report reveals. Target listed one for $24.99 and the other for $49.99.

The scooters' price gap isn't an anomaly. The New York City Department of Consumer Affairs compared nearly 800 products with female and male versions — meaning they were practically identical except for the gender-specific packaging — and uncovered a persistent surcharge for one of the sexes. Controlling for quality, items marketed to girls and women cost an average 7 percent more than similar products aimed at boys and men.

DCA Commissioner Julie Menin, who launched the investigation this summer, said the numbers show an insidious form of gender discrimination. Compounding the injustice, she said, is the wage gap. Federal data shows women in the United States earn about 79 cents for every dollar paid to men.

“It’s a double whammy,” Menin said, “and it’s not just happening in New York. You see in the aisles the issue is clearly applicable to consumers across the country.”

A Target spokesperson said the company lowered the price of the pink scooter after the report was released Friday, calling the discrepancy a "system error."

When asked about the price differences of other gendered toys — like the Raskullz shark helmet ($14.99) and the Raskullz unicorn helmet ($27.99) or the Playmobil pirate ship ($24.99) and the Playmobil fairy queen ship ($37.99) — the representative pointed to a company statement, declining to elaborate: "Our competitive shop process ensures that we are competitively priced in local markets. A difference in price can be related to production costs or other factors."

Researchers for the New York City Department of Consumer Affairs pored over toys, children’s clothing, adult apparel, personal care products and home goods sold in the city. The largest price discrepancy emerged in the hair care category: Women, on average, paid 48 percent more for goods like shampoo, conditioner and gel. Razor cartridges came in second place, costing female shoppers 11 percent more.

Walgreens, for example, peddled a blue box of Schick Hydro 5 cartridges for $14.99. The Schick Hydro “Silk,” its purple sibling, was priced at $18.49.

Across the New York sample, women’s products carried higher price tags 42 percent of the time, while men’s products cost more 18 percent of the time.

Boosting prices according to who's buying is nothing new. Hairdressers often charge women more. Nightclubs sometimes demand more cash from men for admission.

Price discrimination on the whole tends to be worse for women, though. A 1994 report from the State of California found they pay an annual “gender tax” of $1,351 for the same services rendered to men.

Women spend an average of 25 percent more on haircuts (that require the same amount of labor as a men’s style) and 27 percent more for the laundering of a white cotton shirt, a 2002 DCA study showed.

Another analysis from the University of Central Florida found women’s deodorants typically cost 30 cents more than the same product for men. Wrote the authors,“The only discernible difference was scent.”

The pricing differences extend beyond basic services and goods. Until courts knocked the practice down, insurance companies in Europe charged women more because women live longer. Under the Affordable Care Act, insurance companies in the United States cannot factor gender into cost.

New York City law has banned gender discrimination the pricing of services since 1998. Businesses cannot legally charge more for haircuts or dry cleaning, for example, based on the patron’s sex. They must instead offer gender-neutral rates by labor intensity.

That doesn’t mean local companies always follow the rules. DCA inspectors issued 129 violations for gender pricing of services this year, compared to 118 in 2014.

California and Florida's Miami­Dade County also prohibit selling the same services to men and women at different prices. No federal law, though, requires businesses to set gender­-equal prices on products. New York City’s report was released to heighten consumer awareness, Menin said, and to publicly shame companies with glaring disparities.

Of the 24 retailers in the New York City report, the worst gender pricing disparity surfaced at Club Monaco, where women’s clothing cost an average of 28.9 percent more than men’s clothing, according to an independent analysis by economist Ian Ayres. Urban Outfitters trailed with a 24.6 percent gender premium, followed by Levis with 24.3 percent.

The retailers did not respond to the Post's request for comment.

In 1991, Ayres, a professor at Yale Law School, sent men and women to car dealerships across the Chicago area. He learned white women were charged 40 percent more than white men, supporting the stereotype that dealers assume women knew less about car values.

Gender equality has improved considerably since Ayres’s paper was published — so why do blatant price disparities persist today? “One contributing factor is profitability,” he said. “You’re pulling an extra dollar out of a certain group of consumers.”

Companies might be exploiting the idea that female shoppers are willing to spend more money than their male counterparts, he said.

Of course, a woman’s sweater might be crafted with nicer fabrics. A man’s sweater might be stitched with cheaper polyester. But that often isn't the case. Frequently, the only difference between two products is color.

“Those prices aren’t being driven by costs,” Ayres said, “but just because you take advantage of certain groups but not others.”

Ravi Dhar, director of the Center for Customer Insights at the Yale School of Management, said how we perceive “women’s” products could help explain why gender markups persist in the marketplace.

“Many men's products are not seen as men's products,” he said. “They might just be seen as products in the category.”

Which makes the “pink” version a specialty product, he said. "His" and "hers" items might stem from antiquated gender roles, but our appetites for personally tailored goods might have kept the distinction alive.

“People see a greater fit between the product and their tastes," Dhar said, "and may be willing to pay more."

---

source:
Why you should always buy the men’s version of almost anything
By Danielle Paquette

Nazi Platform

A reflection on the Nazi Platform and its possible basis of comparison to modern American politics.

The Program of the German Workers’ Party is a program for our time.
The leadership rejects the establishment of new aims after those set out in the Program have been achieved, for the sole purpose of making it possible for the Party to continue to exist as the result of the artificially stimulated dissatisfaction of the masses.

National Socialist German Workers Party Platform	American Equivalent	Basis
1. We demand the uniting of all Germans within one Greater Germany, on the basis of the right to self-determination of nations.	Right	Nationalism
2. We demand equal rights for the German people (Volk) with respect to other nations, and the annulment of the peace treaty of Versailles and St. Germain.	Libertarian	Isolationism
3. We demand land and soil (Colonies) to feed our People and settle our excess population.	Right	Nationalism
4. Only Nationals (Volksgenossen) can be Citizens of the State.	Right	Citizenship
Only persons of German blood can be Nationals, regardless of religious affiliation.	Right	Nationalism and Religious Freedom
No Jew can therefore be a German National.	Far Left / Far Right	Antisemitism
5. Any person who is not a Citizen will be able to live in Germany only as a guest and must be subject to legislation for Aliens.	Right	Immigration
6. Only a Citizen is entitled to decide the leadership and laws of the State.	Right	Voter ID
We therefore demand that only Citizens may hold public office, regardless of whether it is a national, state or local office.	Right	Nationalism
We oppose the corrupting parliamentary custom of making party considerations, and not character and ability, the criterion for appointments to official positions.	Left	Democracy over Republicanism
7. We demand that the State make it its duty to provide opportunities of employment first of all for its own Citizens.	Left	Government Job Creation
If it is not possible to maintain the entire population of the State, then foreign nationals (non-Citizens) are to be expelled from the Reich.	Right	Immigration
8. Any further immigration of non-Germans is to be prevented. We demand that all non-Germans who entered Germany after August 2, 1914, be forced to leave the Reich without delay.	Right	Immigration
9. All German Citizens must have equal rights and duties.	Left	Equal Rights
10. It must be the first duty of every Citizen to carry out intellectual or physical work.	Right	Duty to Work
Individual activity must not be harmful to the public interest and must be pursued within the framework of the community and for the general good. We therefore demand:	Left	Limitation on Freedom of Expression
11. The abolition of all income obtained without labor or effort.	Left	Unearned Income
Breaking the Servitude of Interest.	Left	Anti-Bank
12. In view of the tremendous sacrifices in property and blood demanded of the nation by every war, personal gain from the war must be termed a crime against the nation. We therefore demand the total confiscation of all war profits.	Left	War Profiteering
13. We demand the nationalization of all enterprises (already) converted into corporations (trusts).	Left	Government Ownership of Production
14. We demand profit-sharing in large enterprises.	Left	Profit-sharing
15. We demand the large-scale development of old-age pension schemes.	Left	Social Security
16. We demand the creation and maintenance of a sound middle class;	Left	"Maintenance" of Middle Class
the immediate communalization of the large department stores, which are to be leased at low rates to small tradesmen.	Left	Communism and Trade Unions
We demand the most careful consideration for the owners of small businesses in orders placed by national, state, or community authorities.	Left	Small Business over Low Prices
17. We demand land reform in accordance with our national needs and a law for expropriation without compensation of land for public purposes.	Left	Eminent Domain for Public Use
Abolition of ground rent and prevention of all speculation in land.	Left	Anti-Speculation
18. We demand ruthless battle against those who harm the common good by their activities. Persons committing base crimes against the People, usurers, profiteers, etc., are to be punished by death without regard to religion or race.	Left	Anti-Bank
19. We demand the replacement of Roman Law, which serves a materialistic World Order, by German Law.	Left	Anti-Capitalism
20. In order to make higher education – and thereby entry into leading positions – available to every able and industrious German, the State must provide a thorough restructuring of our entire public educational system.	Left	Free Education
The courses of study at all educational institutions are to be adjusted to meet the requirements of practical life.	Left	Government Mandated Curriculum
Understanding of the concept of the State must be achieved through the schools (teaching of civics) at the earliest age at which it can be grasped.	Right	Civics
We demand the education at the public expense of specially gifted children of poor parents, without regard to the latters’ position or occupation.	Left	Free Education
21. The State must raise the level of national health by means of mother-and-child care, the banning of juvenile labor, achievements of physical fitness through legislation for compulsory gymnastics and sports, and maximum support for all organizations providing physical training for young people.	Left	Compulsory Education
22. We demand the abolition of hireling troops and the creation of a national army.	Right	National Military
23. We demand laws to fight against deliberate political lies and their dissemination by the press. In order to make it possible to create a German press, we demand:	Right	Anti-Press
a) all editors and editorial employees of newspapers appearing in the German language must be German by race;	Right	National Language
b) non-German newspapers require express permission from the State for their publication. They may not be printed in the German language;	Right	Non-Citizen Laws
c) any financial participation in a German newspaper or influence on such a paper is to be forbidden by law to non-Germans and the penalty for any breach of this law will be the closing of the newspaper in question, as well as the immediate expulsion from the Reich of the non-Germans involved.	Right	Immigration
Newspapers which violate the public interest are to be banned.	Left	Government Controlled Media
We demand laws against trends in art and literature which have a destructive effect on our national life, and the suppression of performances that offend against the above requirements.	Right	"Right and Wrong" in Art
24. We demand freedom for all religious denominations, provided that they do not endanger the existence of the State or offend the concepts of decency and morality of the Germanic race.	Right	Freedom of Religion
The Party as such stands for positive Christianity, without associating itself with any particular denomination.	Right	Pro-Christianity
It fights against the Jewish-materialistic spirit within and around us, and is convinced that a permanent revival of our nation can be achieved only from within, on the basis of: Public Interest before Private Interest.	Far Left / Far Right	Antisemitism
25. To carry out all the above we demand: the creation of a strong central authority in the Reich.	Left	Authoritarian Government
Unquestioned authority by the political central Parliament over the entire Reich and over its organizations in general.	Left	Anti-Federalism
The establishment of trade and professional organizations to enforce the Reich basic laws in the individual states.	Left	Trade Unions

The Party leadership promises to take an uncompromising stand, at the cost of their own lives if need be, on the enforcement of the above points.
Munich, Germany
February 24, 1920.

---

source:
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/platform-of-the-national-socialist-german-workers-rsquo-party

Plague Post - growing like a pest

It has recently become a fascination of mine to look into plagues, specifically yersinia pestis (Y.Pestis), and the unexpected outcomes of tragedy. I have been frightfully surprised at these outcomes; not because they're uniformly horrific, but because some of the outcomes are strangely wonderful.

'Wonderful' is an odd word to use when discussing the deaths of literally millions of people. But I use that word because some unintended consequences of tragedy can be truly be full of wonder and amazement. Imagine a horrific disease, so bad it becomes named "The Black Death", causing an increase in life and health! As strange as it sounds, these two seemingly polar opposites can be true.

Comedy, they say, is tragedy plus time. Perhaps given enough time, tragedy becomes triumph.

This blog post will, like the subject disease, will evolve over time. This is new territory for me, so some of my thoughts will be (like the blog title) rambling and incoherent. Over time, given more research, I hope to return to this post again and again, like the recurrence of the plague, to refine it and correct errors and omissions.

---

Let's begin with a timeline of this particular disease.

• 7000 BC - Neolithic Period begins.
• 4000 BC - The first known (at this time) emergence of Y.Pestis, but in a much less virulent form. Perhaps diverged from other yersinia pathogens.
• 3500 BC - Domestication of horses in western Eurasia.
• 3000 BC - Record of Y.Pestis DNA in Eurasia. Perhaps acquired the ability to infect fleas at this time.
• 3000 BC - The Neolithic Decline is a period where neolithic populations mysteriously declined, signalling the end of the Neolithic Period.
• 2500 BC - Evidence of widespread use of wheeled vehicles;earliest in Hungary.
• 2300 BC - Bronze Age begins.
• 2000 BC - The virulence of Y.Pestis increases. Able to spread between mammals via flea bites.
• 1800 BC - DNA of Y.Pestis found in Samara region of Russia; north of Caspian Sea.
• 800 BC - DNA of Y.Pestis found in Armenia; west of Caspian Sea.
• 700 BC - Iron Age begins.

It's important to note some things at this juncture. It's probable that the Neolithic Decline, which occurred about 5000 years ago (~3000 BC), was due to the emergence of Y.Pestis and its new found virulence. Fortunately for the world, neolithic societies did not interact much with one another. The spread of the bacteria was minimal. Whole groups just died alone without causing much fuss and bother for the rest of the world. The bacteria's hosts just weren't mobile enough to spread very far before dying themselves.

Prior to the Neolithic Decline, many 'mega-settlements' had formed in Europe and elsewhere. As the plague decimated the Eurasian steppes, people fled from these areas. They unwittingly brought Y.Pestis with them. The stone age peoples in such large concentrations were easy prey for Y.Pestis, and those who survived the journey to bring it there were likely resistant or immune to it. So this migration seemed to be one not of integration but of replacement.

And we come to the first of the strangely beneficial effects of the plague. The horse was first domesticated in the western steppes of Eurasia, generally accepted as in the Ural Mountains, north of the Caspian Sea. With the spread of wheeled technology, travel over distance becomes much easier. When the plague drives people out of the Eurasian steppes into western Europe and beyond, they brought their horses with them. They find and adopt the wheeled technology in those areas.

Suddenly, horse riding cultures spread across Europe and are displacing the peoples living there. Wheeled vehicles become commonplace. Travel becomes easier. Simple herding and farming techniques advance into agriculture, trade, and commerce.

Language, as well, was directly affected by the plague and its tendency to enforce migration from the Eurasian steppes. Many languages today can be traced to 'Indo-European' sources. In fact, 'Proto-Indo-European', or PIE, is the largest spoken language group in the world today. PIE is thought to have been a single spoken language from 4500 BC to 2500 BC, and it originated in the Caspian steppe of western Eurasia. Some of the descendant languages include: Spanish, English, Portuguese, Hindi, Urdu, Bengali, Russian, Punjabi, German, Persian, French, and Italian, just to name a few. Branches from the PIE include: Hellenic, Indo-Iranian, Italic, Celtic, Germanic, and Balto-Slavic.

"And the whole earth was of one language, and of one speech. And it came to pass, as they journeyed from the east, that they found a plain in the land of Shinar; and they dwelt there."
Genesis 11:1-2

"And the Lord said, Behold, the people is one, and they have all one language; and this they begin to do: and now nothing will be restrained from them, which they have imagined to do."
Genesis 11:6

This is just conjecture, but the breakup of PIE into branches may have been a reaction to the plague. When foreigners came to your land, any means to differentiate them from your tribe became important. Simple shibboleths became markers of outsiders, and outsiders might have the plague. Groups isolated themselves from foreigners to protect themselves and their communities. Isolation will intensify language differences. Those differences become pronounced and identifiable. It becomes easier to identify outsiders and possible carriers. Language becomes a defensive tool against the plague and certain death.

One last thing to note before moving on. Many sources postulate that the more well known versions of the plague, specifically the Justinian Plague and the Black Death, originated in China. It is clear to me that the actual origin of the Y.Pestis virus in the commonly known form was from the Eurasian steppes. While later versions of Y.Pestis may have returned to Europe from China, it is only because China first received the plague from western Eurasia.

---

• 200 BC - Roman Climate Optimum; until 150 AD.
• 165 AD - Antonine Plague.
• 180 AD - Grave in China found to contain Y.Pestis strain genetically linked to later plagues.
• 249 AD - Plague of Cyprian.
• 312 AD - Conversion of Constantine.
• 450 AD - Late Antique Little Ice Age; until 700 AD.
• 541 AD - Justinian Plague. Recurrence of this plague continues for about 200 years.

---

Yellow Fever originated in Africa and came to the Americas during the colonization, mostly from the southern slave trade. However, many of the slaves from Africa had a natural immunity to it due to the prevalence of it in their home countries. Many had it as children and had developed natural antibodies as a result. So when Yellow Fever spread to the white settlers, it decimated them and left the black slaves relatively unscathed. It was postulated at the time that black people were genetically unable to get Yellow Fever, so white patients were often exclusively cared for by black caregivers. They observed black men and women acting as physicians and nurses, rather than simple bearers of burdens. In the north, this fueled sympathy for their black caregivers and led to widespread sympathy for wider abolition movements. In the south, their worth as cheap labor obviously overshadowed their worth as men and women.

https://www.history.com/news/yellow-fever-outbreak-philadelphia

Sickle cell disease coincidentally protects the sufferer from malaria. One unintended result of slavery in the Americas meant that non-black slaves would contract and often die of malaria at higher rates than black slaves. This meant a black slave would stay healthy longer in the hot, humid climate of the south in America, of the Caribbean, and of South America. They could work longer and live longer than non-white slaves (i.e. Irish or Natives). The northern climates of America had no serious malaria concerns, so black slaves were not valued as much as they were in the southern states.

---

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/26/1903797116

the black plague and the need for a new printing method
How The Bubonic Plague Made Europe Great
THE BLACK DEATH
Did the Black Death Give Life to the English Language?
The Benefits Of The Black Plague History Essay
The Renaissance – why it changed the world

Late Antiquity Little Ice Age Triggered Plague, Decline of Empires, and Migration
Little Ice Age, Big Consequences

125-year mini ice age linked to the plague and fall of empires

---

source:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.11.005
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-ancient-strain-plague-decline-neolithic.html
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/12/181206120035.htm
https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Europe/The-Neolithic-Period
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/01/health/01plague.html
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/25/12363
https://www.ancient-origins.net/news-history-archaeology/plague-pandemic-0012091
https://www.livescience.com/29498-plague-helped-destroy-roman-empire.html
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-climate-change-and-disease-helped-fall-rome-180967591/

billion dollar Big Mac revisited

I once did a post about the minimum wage, McDonalds, and the Big Mac. I used the publicly available information at the time, and I did the math (FUN!). That was six years ago. Time flies and statistics change. How would that post read if written today?

Let's do it!

	McDonalds 2013	McDonalds 2018
Company Owned Locations	6,738	2,770
Franchise Locations	28,691	35,085

We can already see that McDonalds has shed many company owned locations in favor of franchise owned. This distributes the liability of employees to the franchisees. So there is one direct impact of the minimum wage that will affect local, small businesses to a greater degree than it will the large corporation. Raised wages will cripple the small business owner, and only trickle-up to the corporation.

Company-operated restaurant expenses ($millions)
Food & paper	3,153.8
Payroll & employee benefits	2,937.9
Occupancy & other operating expenses	2,174.2
Franchised restaurants-occupancy expenses	1,973.3
Selling, general & administrative expenses	2,200.2

They directly employ 210,000 employees as of 2018. I don't have how many are employed by francisees. So we'll have to extrapolate franchise employees. If we do, we get about 2.5 million franchise employees. Previously, only about half of all employees were US-based. So, let's say only 1.25 million franchise employees are in the US, and we will ignore the McDonald's corporate employees, because we're not sure how many are salary versus hourly. And if we say 20% of the franchise employees are salary, that gives us a cool one million employees to work with.

1,000,000 McDonalds employees in the US

$7.50 minimum wage

$15.00 desired wage

550,000,000 Big Macs sold per year

Let's do math! (FUN!)

1,000,000 x ($15.00 - $7.50) = an additional $7,500,000 to employ all McDonalds employees for one hour.
but they don't all work at the same time... let's assume there are many more part-time workers than full time... and let's estimate each worker works and average of only 20 hours during any given week... we'll estimate low, just y'know, because we don't want to be unrealistic.
$7,500,000 x 20 = an additional $150,000,000 to pay for one week of all McDonalds employees.
there are 52 weeks in a year... usually.
$150,000,000 x 52 = an additional $7,800,000,000 to pay the additional wages of all McDonalds employees for one full year.
that's 7.8 Billion additional dollars... that has to come from somewhere... like raising the price of Big Macs.
$7,800,000,000 / 550,000,000 = an additional $14.18 per Big Mac.
what are they now, like $4.39?... so a Big Mac would cost $18.57 plus tax... no fries... no shake.

We just learned a few things. In the last six years since I first wrote the "Billion Dollar Big Mac", McDonalds has undergone some changes. First, they've shed corporate employees, but overall employment has risen. Second, the price of a Big Mac has nearly doubled. Lastly, the effect of the minimum wage has only worsened.

And who does it still effect? The poor and the small business owners.

the "rich" don't pay for Big Macs... it's the working poor... it's the same people who work at places like McDonalds who then shop and eat at places like McDonalds... it's us... we have to come up with $7.8 billion dollars.

---

sources:
https://rvolt24.blogspot.com/2013/08/billion-dollar-big-mac.html
https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/investors-relations/financial-information/sec-filings.html
http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000063908/94ad07bd-66c3-433c-a81e-94f1587b0ed8.pdf
https://www.reference.com/food/many-big-macs-sold-day-225cf538abc342ab

EDIT (2021-03-09):
Proof: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28506/w28506.pdf

The Socialist's Dilemma

while i'm not going to go into what a "Prisoner's Dilemma" or the "Tragedy of the Commons" is exactly, i will say that these absolutely show why Communism, and to a great degree Socialism, cannot work... and any refutation of this relies on a utopian society where all people are good, altruistic, and moral but also where there are no selfish or immoral people.

first, let's establish that there are, in fact, selfish people and immoral people... often, they are the same people... an immoral person may be immoral out of selfish reasons... a sociopath may be immoral without being selfish, but that would be the exception which proves the rule... a selfish person may indeed not be immoral, for what is immoral about self-preservation?... a decision which is good for the community as a whole, and therefore deemed moral by a Communist or Socialist society, may not be good for the individual... in fact, it may be directly detrimental to an individual... therefore, we cannot conclude that a selfish person is actually immoral, unless you define morality by self-sacrifice for the greater good, which Socialism often puts forward.

the healthcare debate in America is a prime example of selfish and immoral people in action... is it selfish to desire to keep one's own earned income?... to Socialists, yes... by keeping your own income is to deny needed resources to those who cannot earn their own; e.g. the disabled, the elderly, the young... an orphan may become a ward of the state, and how does the state pay for this orphan but through laying of taxes on those who might otherwise not provide for that orphan... the Libertarians might say it is for private charity to support the orphans, so those who are inclined to may give freely of their own resources... but history shows how poorly that goes for the orphans... during meager times, the larger donors may not have the resources to share, and those who did not give during times of plenty are sure to not give during times of scarcity... many might even assume that the needs are met by some unknown persons, and therefore their generosity is not necessary... you can see this in action at your local Humane Society or pet shelter... furthermore, when private charity is given, often the gifts are contingent on the charity behaving in certain ways... if an orphanage were to solicit charity, yet they squander those meager resources on opulence for the care-givers, donations would surely stop coming... but what happens to the orphans when it does?

likewise, with healthcare, we are often told that there are two choices... one, each person is responsible for their own fortunes... two, everyone must be responsible for the well-being of everyone else... but there are really more choices than this.

like in the Prisoner's Dilemma, each person can act selflessly or selfishly... if they act selflessly, they understand that other people are free to act selfishly... in economic terms, if everyone acts selflessly, the rate of return is equitable with the amount given... but if even one person acts selfishly, the rate of return on any charitable giving will be reduced... the more selfish actors, the lower the return... unless, of course, you yourself also act selfishly... then the rate of return is greater than what is given... but if everyone acts selfishly, the rate of return dwindles down to zero.

---

source:

The Economist explains economics: What is the Nash equilibrium and why does it matter? | The Economist

Prisoner's Dilemma

Tragedy of the Commons