Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

billion dollar Big Mac revisited

I once did a post about the minimum wage, McDonalds, and the Big Mac. I used the publicly available information at the time, and I did the math (FUN!). That was six years ago. Time flies and statistics change. How would that post read if written today?

Let's do it!

McDonalds 2013McDonalds 2018
Company Owned Locations6,7382,770
Franchise Locations28,69135,085

We can already see that McDonalds has shed many company owned locations in favor of franchise owned. This distributes the liability of employees to the franchisees. So there is one direct impact of the minimum wage that will affect local, small businesses to a greater degree than it will the large corporation. Raised wages will cripple the small business owner, and only trickle-up to the corporation.

Company-operated restaurant expenses ($millions)
Food & paper3,153.8
Payroll & employee benefits2,937.9
Occupancy & other operating expenses2,174.2
Franchised restaurants-occupancy expenses1,973.3
Selling, general & administrative expenses2,200.2

They directly employ 210,000 employees as of 2018. I don't have how many are employed by francisees. So we'll have to extrapolate franchise employees. If we do, we get about 2.5 million franchise employees. Previously, only about half of all employees were US-based. So, let's say only 1.25 million franchise employees are in the US, and we will ignore the McDonald's corporate employees, because we're not sure how many are salary versus hourly. And if we say 20% of the franchise employees are salary, that gives us a cool one million employees to work with.

1,000,000 McDonalds employees in the US
$7.50 minimum wage
$15.00 desired wage
550,000,000 Big Macs sold per year

Let's do math! (FUN!)
1,000,000 x ($15.00 - $7.50) = an additional $7,500,000 to employ all McDonalds employees for one hour.
but they don't all work at the same time... let's assume there are many more part-time workers than full time... and let's estimate each worker works and average of only 20 hours during any given week... we'll estimate low, just y'know, because we don't want to be unrealistic.
$7,500,000 x 20 = an additional $150,000,000 to pay for one week of all McDonalds employees.
there are 52 weeks in a year... usually.
$150,000,000 x 52 = an additional $7,800,000,000 to pay the additional wages of all McDonalds employees for one full year.
that's 7.8 Billion additional dollars... that has to come from somewhere... like raising the price of Big Macs.
$7,800,000,000 / 550,000,000 = an additional $14.18 per Big Mac.
what are they now, like $4.39?... so a Big Mac would cost $18.57 plus tax... no fries... no shake.
We just learned a few things. In the last six years since I first wrote the "Billion Dollar Big Mac", McDonalds has undergone some changes. First, they've shed corporate employees, but overall employment has risen. Second, the price of a Big Mac has nearly doubled. Lastly, the effect of the minimum wage has only worsened.

And who does it still effect? The poor and the small business owners.
the "rich" don't pay for Big Macs... it's the working poor... it's the same people who work at places like McDonalds who then shop and eat at places like McDonalds... it's us... we have to come up with $7.8 billion dollars.

sources:
https://rvolt24.blogspot.com/2013/08/billion-dollar-big-mac.html
https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/investors-relations/financial-information/sec-filings.html
http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000063908/94ad07bd-66c3-433c-a81e-94f1587b0ed8.pdf
https://www.reference.com/food/many-big-macs-sold-day-225cf538abc342ab

Thursday, March 14, 2019

The #YangGang can't do math

Andrew Yang talking to Joe Rogan:
  • "[The US is spending] $1.5 trillion on 126 welfare programs and Social Security."
  • "The real price tag [for UBI] is $1.8 trillion, if you say everyone who is 18 and up. Now for context, the entire US economy is now $20 trillion... and the Federal budget is $4 trillion."
  • "When you put money into people's hands, it doesn't disappear. It's going to go right back into the economy."
  • "Of the $1.8 trillion, we're going to get back (let's say) $800 billion in new tax receipts."
  • "We're going to save $100-200 billion on things like incarceration, homelessness services, and emergency room healthcare."
  • "So, if you look at the cost savings, and the value gains, and the economic growth, that actually gains you back about $1 trillion."
  • "The way you get back the last $800 billion... we need to put in a new tax that actually gets the American public a slice of every robot-truck mile, Amazon transaction, Facebook ad."
Let's do the math. (FUN!!!)

The civilian population, ages 16 and over and not in jail, is about 258,392,000. Half of which are currently receiving some sort of government assistance. Even if we assume none of them will receive UBI (which, according to Yang, many will get at least a partial payment), then we are paying out $1.5 trillion AT MINIMUM every year. So at least his estimate of $1.8 trillion is somewhat accurate.

But $1.8 trillion is almost half of the Federal budget of $4 trillion (estimated $4.41 trillion for 2019). Of that $4 trillion, $1.45 trillion is Social Security and $0.45 trillion is welfare. The UBI won't change that, as we are only considering the half of Americans who don't already receive government assistance. So we are adding $1.8 trillion of spending on TOP of the $1.9 trillion already being spent in government handouts. Our budget goes from $4.41 trillion to $6.31 trillion overnight.

"But we get that money back in tax receipts." No we don't. Of federal revenue, ad valorum taxes currently account for $1.6 trillion dollars. Our GDP is about $20 trillion, so ad valorum taxes are about 8% of our GDP. Even if we increase our GDP by the full $1.8 trillion, our ad valorum taxes would only raise $1.75 trillion; an increase of only $150 billion, not $800 billion.

Let's say we place an income tax on the UBI (which is stupid to tax government handouts, but it already happens in many instances). We currently get $2.4 trillion in income taxes, which is about 12% of GDP. We add the same $1.8 trillion, in its entirety, to the GDP and tax it at 12%, we get about $200 billion. So far, between ad valorum and income taxes, took back about $350 billion of the $1.8 trillion.

(EDIT) I just learned that Hauser's Law says:
In the United States, federal tax revenues since World War II have always been approximately equal to 19.5% of GDP, regardless of wide fluctuations in the marginal tax rate.
Ad valorum = 8% of GDP. Income tax = 12% of GDP. Total revenue = 20% of GDP. Damn I'm good (even if by accident).

Saying we're going to save money on incarceration by paying people is to deny reality. The people who already get government funding are the most likely to commit crimes. Yang said he's not going to be paying people UBI to those getting government money (or at least not more than his magic $1000/mo). So the people who are committing the most crimes wouldn't see any more money. No more money = no less recidivism. Therefore, $0 dollars gained.

As for saving on healthcare, we are making the logical leap that some of the UBI will be spent on health insurance and preventative healthcare. If it is, then it's not being put toward very much of the GDP, ad valorum taxes, or income taxes. But let's play along, shall we? Federal spending on healthcare, after you remove services like senior care and R&D, which will not change, we're spending about $500 billion federally. Most of this, $400 billion, goes to the states for services which would include those pesky emergency room visits. Even if we reduce this by half (which is overestimating, but let's be generous), we are only saving $200 billion.

So, with $150 billion from ad valorum taxes, $200 billion from income taxes, $0 dollars from reduced incarceration, and $200 billion from reduced healthcare costs, we have a grand total of $550 billion of the needed $1.8 trillion. We need to create new taxes, such as the Value-Added tax (VAT), and raise $1.25 trillion.

Where. Does. That. Money. Come. From?

This is where the logic breaks down between liberals and money. They think the following:

  1. Money put into people's hands goes into the economy.
  2. Money taken from them through taxes comes from magic fairy dust.


figures:

Income Taxes = 37% total 
Social Insurance Taxes = 23% total 
Ad valorem Taxes = 24% total 
Fees and Charges = 9% total 
Business and Other Revenue = 7% total

Income Taxes = $2.4 trillion 
Social Insurance Taxes = $1.5 trillion 
Ad valorem Taxes = $1.6 trillion 
Fees and Charges = $0.6 trillion 
Business and Other Revenue = $0.5 trillion 
Total Direct Revenue = $6.5 trillion

Income Taxes: Individual and corporate income taxes.
Social Insurance Taxes: FICA taxes, unemployment, disability taxes.
Ad valorem Taxes: Sales, excise and property taxes, licenses.
Fees and Charges: Fees for government services other than taxes.
Business and Other Revenue: Revenue from government businesses such as liquor stores and utilities.


source:
Joe Rogan Experience #1245 - Andrew Yang - Streamed live on Feb 12, 2019
Total Government Revenue in the United States - Fiscal Year 2019
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey - Civilian noninstitutional population - Age: 16 years and over
We've Crossed The Tipping Point; Most Americans Now Receive Government Benefits - Forbes - by Merrill Matthews - Jul 2, 2014
Total US Government Spending
US Gross Output for 2017 Released

Monday, February 20, 2017

Re-Blog - Who Is “Fascist”?

The abuse and proper use of a political label.

Those who put a high value on words may recoil at the title of Jonah Goldberg’s new book, Liberal Fascism. As a result, they may refuse to read it, which will be their loss — and a major loss.

Those who value substance over words, however, will find in this book a wealth of challenging insights, backed up by thorough research and brilliant analysis.

This is the sort of book that challenges the fundamental assumptions of its time — and which, for that reason, is likely to be shunned rather than criticized.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

everyone I don't like is fascist

Is Donald Trump a fascist? Everyone says so. Except no one knows what a "fascist" really is. So, let's compare and contrast Trump and his policies to fascism.

Pro-fascist-Trump:
  1. "Trump uses ethnic stereotypes."
    1. Trump calls for an end to illegal immigration on our southern border with Mexico. Many illegal immigrants are criminals. That doesn't mean all Mexicans in the US are illegal immigrants or criminals.
      1. Association Fallacy: Illegal immigrants can be Mexicans. Illegal immigrants can also be criminals. All Mexicans must therefore be criminals.
    2. Trump calls for a cessation in accepting refugees from the Middle East without strict vetting for terrorists. That doesn't mean all middle-easterners are terrorists.
      1. Fallacy of Composition: Terrorists are muslim. Therefore all muslims are terrorists.
    3. Likewise, Trump calls for better policing of Muslims in the US. That doesn't mean all Muslims are terrorists. However, currently, almost all terrorists in the US have been Muslim.
  2. "Make America Great Again" is the same nationalist rallying cry fascists use.
    1. Nationalism does not equal racism. If some nationalist are racist, all nationalist are not therefore racist.
      1. Fallacy of Composition: Fascists are nationalists. Therefore all nationalists are fascists.
    2. Nationalism does not exclude other cultures and peoples. It is a statement of pride and unity, not division.
    3. Nationalism can be used to divide "us versus them", but just because something can be done doesn't mean it will be done.
      1. Appeal to Probability: Nationalists can possibly be Racists. All Nationalists must be Racists.
  3. "He plays on the fears of economic decline."
    1. The economy has declined. Employment is down. Real wages are down. The value of the dollar is down. Federal debt has skyrocketed. These are rational fears.
    2. The economy may not be as bad as Trump makes it sound. But should that be reason to ignore it?
  4. "He has an aggressive foreign policy."
    1. What is the alternative? Not to provide a false-dichotomy, but is the alternative a passive foreign policy?
    2. Has the less aggressive foreign policy of Trump's predecessor been successful? Policies can be judged fairly by their results.
Anti-fascist-Trump:
  1. Fascists are anti-individualism.
    1. A fascist's brand of nationalism was to subject the individual to the needs of the state.
    2. Trump is fiercely individualistic. You are only to be nationalist to a government which does not restrict your freedoms.
  2. Fascists restrict businesses for the good of the country.
    1. Trump wants to lift restrictions on businesses for the good of the businesses.
  3. Ownership of land remained with the people, but fascists want to control the use of the land.
    1. Trump wants private ownership of anything.


source:
#specificallyTHIS: Is Donald Trump a fascist?

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

49 abominable facts about Hillary the media won't tell you - Re-Blog

If you listen to the news, the only real reporting being done about Hillary Clinton has to do with her email scandal. Even though she violated the Espionage Act, the FBI refused to prosecute. Her family’s foundation is under heavy scrutiny. But did you know these other important points about Hillary’s life-long run to the White House?

Saul Alinsky
  1. During her college years at Wellesley, Hillary Clinton formed her political ideology as a close friend and confidant of Saul Alinsky, the Marxist firebrand who resurrected the “Communist Manifesto” and urged young liberals to agitate and create unrest to establish communist ends.
  2. Hillary Clinton’s senior thesis at Wellesley College was locked at her husband’s request during his time as president. The 92-page thesis was about Alinsky, with whom Clinton shared a mentor/apprentice relationship.
  3. According to NBCNews, David Brock called Hillary “Alinsky’s daughter” in his 1996 biography, “The Seduction of Hillary Rodham.”
  4. Hillary Clinton wrote in her thesis, “Much of what Alinsky professes does not sound ‘radical.’” This, coming from the man who dedicated his book, “Rules for Radicals” to Lucifer, “the first radical.”
  5. To read a more in depth article about Hillary and Saul Alinsky, read, “Alinsky’s Daughter: Here’s the truth about Hillary the media won’t tell you.”
Leftist Law Firm
  1. After college, Hillary searched for a leftist “movement” law firm and secured a spot at Treuhaft, Walker and Burnstein.
  2. Treuhaft was a former Communist Party member who defended the Black Panthers and other radical leftist groups.
  3. Walker was an avowed Communist until the day she died, and was notorious for successfully defending Angie Davis, a California Communist, on conspiracy murder charges. Davis purchased two firearms two days prior to an armed takeover of a county courthouse. While governor, Ronald Reagan barred Davis from teaching at any California University because of her militant communist beliefs. Walker made a living defending Communists against the Smith Act.
  4. Burnstein was a defender of leftist radical protesters, taking the side of the Communists in Vietnam.
  5. Hillary claimed to work on a child custody case only at the radical firm, but others recall differently. “We did a lot of conscientious-objector work,” during the Vietnam War.
  6. Why did Hillary go to Treuhaft, Walker, and Burnstein? Carl Bernstein quoted Treuhaft as saying, "The reason she came to us, the only reason I could think of because none of us knew her, was because we were a so-called Movement law firm at the time.
Israel
  1. As a college student, Hillary embraced the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and admired its leader Yassar Arafat, once defending him as a “‘freedom fighter’ trying to free his people from their Israeli ‘oppressors.’”
  2. In her run for senator from New York, Hillary claimed she had Jewish roots by bringing up her grandmother’s remarriage to a Jewish man.
  3. In reaction to seeing a menorah in a friend’s home, Hillary wouldn’t get out of her car, and friends heard Bill explain, "I'm sorry, but Hillary's really tight with the people in the PLO in New York. They're friends of hers, and she just doesn't feel right about the menorah."
Whitewater Scandal
  1. As partners in the Rose Law Firm, Hillary, Bill, and Jim and Susan McDougal participated in a pyramid scheme that used fraudulent real estate loans involving inflated appraisals to circumvent federal law. By the time the FBI investigated, every single person involved was indicted or destroyed except Bill and Hillary. Power Line reported in March 2015:
  1. Clinton, working with Webster Hubbell and Vince Foster, stole hard copies of the billing records of the Rose law firm where they were partners. They erased the electronic version of these records. One set of these documents was later found in the White House, just outside Hillary’s private office, by an employee. Another set was found in Foster’s attic by his widow, some years after he committed suicide. Clinton’s time sheets (handwritten, as was the practice back in the day) were never found.
Fighting for Women
  1. While an attorney in Arkansas, Hillary defended a child rapist, knew he was guilty, but impugned the character of the 12 year old victim anyway, which would send the now-52 year old woman on a path to a life of drugs and crime. Hillary claimed the girl actively sought out “older men,” and had a reputation as a liar. In an interview, Hillary talked about having the rapist take a lie detector test, which he passed, and laughing, Hillary said, “Which forever destroyed my faith in polygraphs.”
  2. Hillary successfully defended a 300 lb man who obviously beat his girlfriend, and got the case thrown out on a technicality.
  3. Juanita Broaddrick claimed she was raped by Bill Clinton, Paula Jones won a $850,000 settlement when she accused Bill of sexual harassment, and Kathleen Willey accused Bill of sexual assault. In each of these cases, and many more, Hillary hired private detectives to dig up dirt on Bill’s accusers in order to destroy their stories, and keep Bill on his path to the White House, as told by biographer Carl Bernstein, former aide George Stephanopoulous, and former Clinton aide Dick Morris.
Black Lives Matter
  1. Hillary has said that white people have to, “recognize our privilege and practice humility.”
  2. To BLM rioters she said, “We need you. We need the promise of a rising generation of activists and organizers who are fearless in your advocacy and determination.”
  3. The Black Lives Matter founder from Worchester, Massachusetts, once complained to Hillary, “Until someone speaks the truth to white people in this country so that we can actually take on anti-blackness as a founding problem in this country, I don’t believe that there is going to be a solution. What in your heart has changed that’s going to change the direction of this country?” Hillary responded, “I don’t believe you change hearts, I believe you change laws. You change allocation of resources. You change the way systems operate,” indicating that she would change government to implement BLM’s demands.
Muslim Brotherhood
  1. Hillary backed the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Mursi. Incidentally, on the way to meet with Mursi, Hillary, was pelted with tomatoes while the Egyptians chanted, “Monica, Monica!”
  2. Hillary’s top aide, Huma Abedin, has well-established ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
  3. Hillary sided with the second official-of-record of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya and discussed what could be done to hamper Qaddafi. “Hillary’s war,” as identified by U.S Navy Rear Admiral Charles Kubic, ended in destabilizing Libya and enhancing the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS.
Gun Control
  1. Hillary believes that Second Amendment proponents are a “minority” of people, and that their viewpoint is “terrorizing” the American people.
  2. Hillary not only wants to make gun ownership illegal for many, but would allow gun manufacturers to be sued by those who have been shot by a legally owned gun. This would include those committing crimes on private property.
  3. Hillary said that the Supreme Court is wrong about the Second Amendment, referring to District of Columbia v. Heller, which struck down the D.C. gun ban and ruled that individuals have a fundamental right to gun ownership under the Second Amendment.
The First Amendment
  1. Hillary has condemned the Citizens United court ruling and wants a constitutional amendment to overturn it. The Citizens United case hinged on the right to free speech and censorship of opposing views. Justices looked at the FEC ban as akin to book burning, and the court ruled that the FEC could not limit political speech.
  2. After four American lives were lost in Benghazi, Hillary Clinton blamed Nakoula Basseley Nakoula for a film he made about Islam. Hillary further falsely claimed the attack was in response to said film. To Charles Woods, the father of one of the deceased at Benghazi, Hillary said, “We will make sure that the person who made that film is arrested and prosecuted.” Nakoula was immediately jailed for over a year.
  3. She has every intention of using the full power of the federal government to snuff out religious liberty.
  4. Hillary has a long history of faulting or trying to ban movies, music, and video games for the actions of criminals.
Abortion
  1. Hillary’s view is that people’s religious beliefs have to be changed when it comes to abortion. “Laws have to be backed up with resources and political will,” she explained. “And deep-seated cultural codes, religious beliefs and structural biases have to be changed.”
  2. Hillary believes that an unborn child — just hours before delivery — has no constitutional rights, i.e., no right to life.
  3. Hillary praised her husband Bill for vetoing a partial birth abortion ban. Partial-birth abortion is exactly what it implies, a child is pulled feet-first out of the mother's womb past the navel and the abortionist punctures the skull of the baby, inserts a powerful vacuum, and suctions the baby's brains which collapses the skull and the child is pulled the rest of the way and discarded. At the time of the veto, the Clintons claimed it was a procedure to protect the health and life of the mother, but a prominent abortion advocate said at the time that the information given to the public was intentionally misleading.
  4. Hillary wants more funding to go to the abortion giant and butcher shop, Planned Parenthood.
  5. Hillary wants to overturn the Hyde Amendment, which is intended to ban government funding for abortion.
Immigration
  1. Hillary’s voter registration leader for her campaign is an illegal immigrant.
  2. Clinton wants to increase Syrian refugees coming into America from 1,500 to 65,000.
  3. At the Univision Democratic debate in March, Hillary said, “I am committed to introducing comprehensive immigration reform and a path to legitimate citizenship within the first 100 days of my presidency.”
  4. Hillary would allow illegal immigrants to obtain health insurance under Obamacare.
Much More
  1. Hillary’s first solo legal case was in defense of a canning corporation when a man found the back end of a rat in his pork and beans. Affectionately known as the “Rat’s ass case,” Hillary claimed it would be considered food in some countries.
  2. Grateful for Hillary’s help in his presidential run, President Jimmy Carter put her in charge of Legal Services Corporation, a federally funded nonprofit, whose budget under Hillary would swell from $90 million to $321 million. Investigators from the General Accounting Office found that during her leadership, those involved with the LSC were, “uniquely reprehensible.”
  3. In 1978 and 1979, Hillary turned a $1,000 investment into $98,540 in less than one year trading cattle futures under the guidance of a Tyson Foods outside attorney. Tyson Foods, under state law, was supposed to dispose of its chicken manure properly, but the state’s governor, Bill Clinton, never enforced the law. Five years later, seepage from the waste contaminated a community’s drinking water and made people sick. It took Bill Clinton 15 months to declare the town a disaster area.
  4. In two years, 2013-2015, Hillary made $2.9 million in speaking fees from large corporations including $675,000 from Goldman Sachs.
  5. In her commencement speech at Wellesley, Hillary quoted her mother as saying, “You know I’ll always love you but there are times when I certainly won’t like you.” In 1993, in an interview with the New York Times, Hillary attributed that exact quote to her father instead.
  6. Hillary was “the first presidential spouse to be subpoenaed. Bill and Hillary Clinton are the first and only first couple to be fingerprinted by the FBI.”
  7. Hillary was at the center of “Travelgate” during her time as first lady. The controversy surrounded seven people who were fired in the office and replaced with her cronies.
  8. Hillary claimed she came under sniper fire during a trip to Bosnia. That claim was easily debunked by Sharyl Attkisson who was accompanied Hillary’s trip as a member of the press. Hillary twice tried to make the silly suggestion stick before the media caught up with her.
  9. Hillary hailed the television channel Al Jazeera and said its viewership was going up in the U.S. “’because it’s real news. You may not agree with it, but you feel like you’re getting real news around the clock.’ She said it was ‘changing peoples’ minds and attitudes. And like it or hate it, it is really effective.’ U.S. news, she added, was not keeping up.”
Hillary is a radical's radical, a compulsive liar, and is intoxicated by the accumulation of wealth and power. Her Marxist ideology and belief that destroying this nation from within is what has motivated and propelled her to become president of this nation. Anyone considering voting for this destroyer should have their heads examined.


source:
49 abominable facts about Hillary the media won't tell you - By Jen Kuznicki - September 03, 2016

Monday, November 7, 2016

a tree is to be judged by its fruits

I was once naive enough to believe the Clintons were able to do the right thing. I have grown up and put away childish things. The scales have been removed.

I know, point by point, why the Clintons and the current incarnation of the Democrat party is corrupt to the core. I know how, with each election, they have learned how to manipulate people to their will. Platitudes such as "Free [anything]" drive the young, the poor, and the disenfranchised to vote for "Hope and Change".

They say the road to Hell is paved with gold. Well, the road to economic ruin is paved with free college, free healthcare, subprime home loans, and government subsidized loans.

Democrats create class warfare saying the "rich need to pay their 'fair share'", meanwhile knowing the top 20% pay 80% of all income taxes. That's not 'fair' enough? They push for 'middle class' tax cuts, meanwhile the lowest 45% pay no income taxes.

Democrats create racial division. But their economic policies are preventing the advancement of the people they claim need the most help. They provide incentive to get welfare, convincing people it is 'deserved'. Then they create a disincentive to advance oneself in education and employment by threatening to take away the 'free' benefits. This creates a cycle that is hard to break. Now, more african-americans go onto welfare than are born each year. And latinos are quickly catching up to them.

Democrats push these divisions because they know the demographics will win elections. Look at election maps, county-by-county. Over the years, the Democrats have taken over all of the inner-city area, areas of the poor and the uneducated, areas caught in the cycle of welfare. And the greater the need and desperation, the more they vote Democrat.

Yet, in all of these heavily voting Democrat areas, controlled by Democrats for thirty or forty years, you find no advancement. They say we need better schools, but they don't provide them. They say we need better jobs, but they push businesses to close. They say we need higher wages, but higher wages are being forced to leave these cities. They say people need a livable wage, but the cost of living is highest in Democrat strongholds.

Tomorrow, vote. Vote for whomever you believe can meet the promises they've made. But a tree is to be judged by its fruits. And a rotten tree produces rotten fruit.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Brutal takedown of CEO wage myth - Re-Blog

THE MISLEADING CLAIM: These 8 CEOs get paid so much that they clearly can afford to raise their worker's wages to $15 per hour.
THE REALITY: As we'll demonstrate below, the math proves this claim is questionable, at best.
JC PENNY:
• 114,000 employees [1]
• CEO pay: $4,629 per hour per the meme.
Each employee could get a $0.04 per hour raise if the CEO's pay were entirely eliminated.
CHIPOTLE:
• 53,090 employees [2]
• CEO pay: $13,489 per hour per the meme.
Each employee could get a $0.25 per hour raise if the CEO's pay were entirely eliminated.
Note, part of why Chipotle's CEO (Steve Ells) is so highly compensated is because he holds TWO positions, rather than just one, also serving as Chipotle’s chairman. [3]
Another interesting point? Chipotle ALREADY pays its workers more than comparable fast food outlets, such as Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, McDonald's, Wendy's, and Burger King. [4]
DUNKIN DONUTS:
• 260,000 employees [5]
• CEO pay: $4,889 per hour per the meme.
Each employee could get a $0.01 (technically 0.018) per hour raise if the CEO's pay were entirely eliminated.
DOMINOS:
• 11,000 employees [6]
• CEO pay: $3,571 per hour per the meme.
Each employee could get a $0.32 per hour raise if the CEO's pay were entirely eliminated.
WENDY'S:
• 31,200 employees [7]
• CEO pay: $3,465 per hour per the meme.
Each employee could get a $0.11 per hour raise if the CEO's pay were entirely eliminated.
WAL-MART:
• 2,200,000 employees [8]
• CEO pay: $2,704 per hour per the meme.
Each employee could get a $0.00 (technically 0.001) per hour raise if the CEO's pay were entirely eliminated.
STAR-BUCKS:
• 191,000 employees [9]
• CEO pay: $10,285 per hour per the meme.
Each employee could get a $0.05 per hour raise if the CEO's pay were entirely eliminated.
MACY'S:
• 166,900 employees [10]
• CEO pay: $7,904 per hour per the meme.
Each employee could get a $0.04 (technically 0.047) per hour raise if the CEO's pay were entirely eliminated.
CONCLUSION:
Considering that this meme took annual CEO pay and simply divided it up into 40 hour work weeks despite the fact that CEOs of top firms routinely work over 40 hours a week [11], it already was guilty of significantly over-inflating CEO's hourly wages. But even if one takes the meme's inaccurate estimates at face value, it's conclusion proves to be entirely false, never the less. You could literally eradicate 100% of CEO pay from each of these companies and never even come close to a 50 cent per hour raise for workers, never mind nearly doubling minimum wages to $15 per hour. This claim is demonstrably false.
----------------------
ADDENDUM:
Before one protests that our counter-argument is off because we counted ALL employees rather than focusing only on those paid under $15, understand that this point - while valid - raises only a very small discrepancy.
It wouldn't matter if one adjusted the math to apply it to half or even one-third the workforce, because one would still struggle to add a dollar to worker's pay.  For instance, take Wal-Mart for example. Their pay increase would each be a (rounded down) 0 cents per hour raise if applied to all workers, but if we adjusted the figures to distribute the CEO's pay amongst workers presently earning less than $15, as to bring it up to the hypothetical $15 minimum, it still wouldn't be more than a few cent raise.  Therefore, even though our rebuttal is a rounded off estimate, it's one that is so significantly far away from the original misleading claim that it becomes obvious Occupy Democrats was very wrong.
---------------------
Sources:
[1]
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/JCP--Number_of_Employees
[2]
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/CMG--Number-of-Employees
[3]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-15/chipotle-investors-slam-executive-compensation-at-annual-meeting
[4]
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-fast-food-jobs-pay-2013-7#!I5stQ
[5]
http://www.bostonjobsource.com/dunkin.html
[6]
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/DPZ--Number-of-Employees
[7]
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/WEN--Number-of-Employees
[8]
http://news.walmart.com/walmart-facts/
[9]
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/SBUX--Number-of-Employees
[10]
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/M--Number-of-Employees
[11]
http://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/mobile/top-executives.htm


source:

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

why i say we're not doing very well

Labor Force Participation Rate
August 2016 - 62.8%
Obama took office 1/2009 - 65.7%
Peak in January 2000 - 67.3%
Last time it was the current rate - March 1978

Labor Force; the number of people, 16 and older who are able to work, with jobs
August 2016 - 159 million
January 2009 - 154 million
January 2000 - 142 million
March 1978 - 104 million

People not in Labor force: the number of people, 16 and older who are able to work, without jobs
August 2016 - 94 million
January 2009 - 80 million
January 2000 - 68 million
March 1978 - 71 million

In last 38 years,
65 million new jobs were filled.
33 million new jobless people.

In last 16 years,
17 million new jobs were filled.
26 million new jobless people.

In last seven years,
5 million new jobs were filled.
14 million new jobless people.

source:
Labor Force Participation Rate
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Civilian Labor Force Level
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Re-Blog - "The Ugly Truth About A $15 Minimum Wage"

The Service Employees International Union spent 2015 expanding its campaign for a $15 minimum wage to other industries. In recent nationwide protests, the union focused again on its original target: Fast food companies, and McDonald's in particular.

I worked for the company for three decades, and served as its USA President for 13 years. I can assure you that a $15 minimum wage won’t spell the end of the brand. However it will mean wiping out thousands of entry-level opportunities for people without many other options.

The $15 minimum wage demand, which translates to $30,000 a year for a full-time employee, is built upon a fundamental misunderstanding of a restaurant business such as McDonald’s. “They’re making millions while millions can’t pay their bills,” argue the union groups, suggesting there’s plenty of profit left over in corporate coffers to fund a massive pay increase at the bottom.

In truth, nearly 90% of McDonald’s locations are independently-owned by franchisees who aren’t making “millions” in profit. Rather, they keep roughly six cents of each sales dollar after paying for food, staff costs, rent and other expenses.

Do the math

Let’s do the math: A typical franchisee sells about $2.6 million worth of burgers, fries, shakes and Happy Meals each year, leaving them with $156,000 in profit. If that franchisee has 15 part-time employees on staff earning minimum wage, a $15 hourly pay requirement eats up three-quarters of their profitability. (In reality, the costs will be much higher, as the company will have to fund raises further up the pay scale.) For some locations, a $15 minimum wage wipes out their entire profit.

Recouping those costs isn’t as simple as raising prices. If it were easy to add big price increases to a meal, it would have already been done without a wage hike to trigger it. In the real world, our industry customers are notoriously sensitive to price increases. (If you’re a McDonald’s regular, there’s a reason you gravitate towards an extra-value meal or the dollar menu.) Instead, franchisees can absorb the cost with a change that customers don’t mind: The substitution of a self-service computer kiosk for a a full-service employee.

In higher-cost European countries, these kiosks are already the norm. In 2011, the company ordered more than 7,000 of them to replace entry-level employees. They’ve been tested successfully in a number of markets in the U.S., and now the company is even testing self-serve McCafe kiosks where a customer can prepare and customize their own coffee beverage.

Hurting young workers

If you’re tempted to shrug your shoulders at this brave new world, don’t. Over four million people in the U.S. are employed at “limited service” restaurants, a descriptor which includes companies like McDonald’s. If even one out of every four jobs was automated, that’s one million fewer job opportunities in a country where the youth unemployment rate is more than three times the overall unemployment rate. (In urban markets such as New York City and Washington, DC, the youth unemployment rate averages 30%.)

These young adults who face long spells of unemployment now are at a long-term disadvantage relative to their employed counterparts. One study released by the Employment Policies Institute found that high-school seniors with part-time work experience earned 20% more per year on average, 6-9 years after graduating, relative to their fellow students who didn’t work. Ironically, today’s minimum wage mandate for higher pay will be condemning young adults to lower-paid and less-successful futures.

I suspect that the labor organizers behind this campaign for a $15 minimum wage are less interested in helping employees, and more interested in helping themselves to dues money from their paycheck. They’re unlikely to succeed in their goal of organizing the employees of McDonald’s franchisees, but they may well succeed in passing $15 into law in other sympathetic locales. You’ll see their legacy every time you visit the Golden Arches, where “would you like fries with that” is a button on a computer screen rather than a phrase spoken by an employee in their first job.


source:
The Ugly Truth About A $15 Minimum Wage by former president and CEO of McDonald's USA, Ed Rensi - 4/25/2016 Forbes

Monday, May 11, 2015

Auditing Cicero - Re-Blog

O tempora! O mores! When will you stop testing our patience? How long will you mock us? How long must we endure that famous audacity of yours? The people are alarmed — doesn’t that mean anything to you? Even the Senate feels the need to defend itself against you. Don’t the worried faces in this august assembly worry you? Don’t you know that your plans already have been found out? Everyone here knows what you are up to. We know where you were last night, and the night before that, where you met, whom you met with, the schemes you hatched. Didn’t you think we’d find out?
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, In Catilinam
The proximate cause of the conspiracy of Catiline in 63 b.c. was debt: Lucius Sergius Catilina was a Roman nobleman from an ancient and celebrated family, a man of great physical courage and mental acuity, but he was utterly dissolute. Having wasted his fortune and spent himself hopelessly into debt, he assembled a small army of similarly ruined noblemen with the aim of overthrowing the Roman republic, murdering their creditors, and pillaging their rivals. Public debt in Rome was at record highs as the result of an unexpected economic downturn, expensive foreign wars, and a real-estate crisis that saw thousands of foreclosed-upon farmers lose their lands and flee to the city. Private debt was a problem, too, along with unfunded liabilities for veterans’ benefits and social spending. Catiline, a senator, had emphasized the issues of economic stimulus for the poor and more spending on veterans’ programs, which won him the support of the plebs, but it was his own debts that weighed most heavily upon his mind, along with his political future. Wise men long ago learned to be suspicious of very rich men demanding to be invested with political power on behalf of the poor, but that is one of the many lessons that the rest of us keep failing to learn.

In his famous denunciation of Catiline, Cicero described his co-conspirators as the worst sort of riff-raff and lowlifes, but in truth they came from the cream of respectable Roman society: Publius Cornelius Lentulus, known as Sura, had been consul only a few years before, while Lucius Cassius Longinus had served as praetor with Cicero himself. But Lentulus had lost his position because of a political scandal, and Cassius had lost his race for the consulship and was widely regarded as a political has-been. Others who had been frustrated by their lack of political success joined the conspiracy — former senators and the less fortunate sons of illustrious families, men who had, in the words of Sallust, “dissipated their patrimonies by gambling, luxury, and sensuality, and had contracted heavy debts.” Children of privilege up in arms, pursuing their own agenda under color of seeking justice for the masses against the financial elites: Occupy Rome, basically.

One cannot fault Catiline’s strategic analysis: Given the decayed state of the republic — Julius Caesar was elected pontifex maximus that same year, quite possibly through bribery — controlling the levers of political power meant the opportunity to put the machinery of the state to immediate use crushing one’s enemies and rewarding one’s friends, with very little standing in the way of an aspiring tyrant other than what Sharron Angle might have called “Second Amendment remedies,” had she and the Bill of Rights been around at the time. (Cicero was a defender of the right to keep and bear arms, but within limits: “Suppose,” he wrote, “that a person leaves his sword with you when he is in his right mind and demands it back in a fit of insanity — it would be criminal to restore it to him.”) Cicero demanded summary execution of the conspirator — “The senate is aware of these things, the consul sees them, and yet this man lives!” — which may seem a bit excessive, but the alternative was civil war, which was just what the Romans got after Catiline escaped. He died in battle, and Sallust noted with grudging respect that the corpses of Catiline and his men were found with their wounds in the right place: in the front.

Cicero, being a shrewd social analyst, recognized that Catiline’s conspiracy was not the moral failing of one man, or even that of the entire class of ambitious sons of privilege. It was, rather, a comprehensive failure of Roman institutions from the senate and consuls on down to the self-interested veterans and envious plebs. His most famous words were not uttered lamenting the decadence of Catiline but the decadence of the age: “O tempora! O mores!” It is better to have a republic defended by civic virtue than to have one defended by swords and spears.

Catiline was hardly the first rotten apple to fall from the tree of the Roman aristocracy, but he was wildly and enduringly popular with the plebs and with those who presumed to speak for them. He survived in legend as a kind of Robin Hood figure well into the Middle Ages, and beyond: Ibsen’s first play was a sympathetic treatment of Catiline, whom he regarded as a forerunner to the revolutionary movements then under way against the Habsburg empire. Catiline’s crime was not only to plot to kill a few senators and walk away from a few debts: His crime was to render the unthinkable thinkable, that a Roman ruler might set aside all of the hard-won liberty of the uncrowned republic and treat the state as his personal instrument, to become the thing that Romans hated most: a king.

In his De Officiis, Cicero meditated upon virtues that are necessary for political life, those “by which society and what we call its ‘common bonds’ are maintained.” The cardinal political virtue was justice — “the crowning glory of the virtues, and the basis upon which we call good men ‘good’” — which when applied to political questions entailed the ability to distinguish the common good from private interest. “The first order of justice is to keep one man from doing harm to another,” Cicero wrote, “and the next is to lead men to use common resources for the common good, private property for their own.”

Our House of Representatives has a hilariously long-winded and specific set of guidelines for helping members of Congress decide what is private and what is public, published under the heading “General Prohibition Against Using Official Resources for Campaign or Political Purposes.” But it is a very serious matter, which you can learn from the House’s declaration that
the misuse of the funds and other resources that the House of Representatives entrusts to Members for the conduct of official House business is a very serious matter. Depending on the circumstances, such conduct may result in not only disciplinary action by the House, but also criminal prosecution. Moreover, while any House employee who makes improper use of House resources is subject to disciplinary action by the Committee on Ethics, each Member should be aware that he or she may be held responsible for any improper use of resources that occurs in the Member’s office. The Committee has long taken the position that each Member is responsible for assuring that the Member’s employees are aware of and adhere to the rules, and for assuring that House resources are used for proper purposes.
The general principles outlined above are very good ones, and Cicero would have recognized them. Using public resources for private political purposes is not just an ethical violation; it is a crime very similar to bribery: one part extortion, one part abuse of office. And it is a crime for which superiors bear some responsibility for the actions of their subordinates.

No less than the actions of Catiline all those centuries ago, the actions of the Internal Revenue Service are a criminal conspiracy not only against the agency’s particular marked targets but against the republic itself, against the very idea of a republic, predicated upon the abuse of official power for private political gain. Such are the mores of these tempora that this scandal has unfolded as though the main question were how it might affect the 2014 congressional elections, or possibly the 2016 presidential race. But those are short-term considerations. This kind of scandal — from the Latin scandalum, or “stumbling block” — goes to the very heart of whether we remain the sort of people who can be trusted to govern themselves. It is a scandal in both the political sense and the Catholic sense of the word: “Any action or its omission, not necessarily sinful in itself, that is likely to induce another to do something morally wrong. Direct scandal, also called diabolical, has the deliberate intention to induce another to sin. In indirect scandal a person does something that he or she foresees will at least likely lead another to commit sin, but this is rather tolerated than positively desired.” (Fr. John A. Hardon, S.J., Modern Catholic Dictionary)

Already there are suggestions that other agencies, possibly the EPA and the ATF, have similarly abused the power entrusted to them, to say nothing of the worrisome developments at the (possibly misnamed) Department of Justice. The precedent that has been set cannot be undone, and the unthinkable is now thinkable, and everybody will be thinking it every time anybody is audited. The opinions of every crank and conspiracy theorist in the land just got a little bit more respectable. The wrongdoing is widespread and systemic; top managers knew about it and lied about it. The public trust has been entrusted to the untrustworthy. The question is not how much damage this scandal will do to the White House, but how much it will do to the country.


source:

Auditing Cicero | National Review Online by Kevin D. Williamson - June 17, 2013

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Free Energy!... for the low, low price of $1,100,000,000,000

there's an idea going around that the US could provide "free energy" in the form of solar panels for every household in America... and while i'm completely for this idea, as a general rule, there are some nasty facts out there to deal with... let's begin.

there are, at best account, around 316,000,000 people in America.

averaging about four people per household (discounting all arguments regarding apartment dwellers, the homeless, and hermits), we have about 79,000,000 homes to furnish with solar panels.

each solar panel will cost about $10,000 in material, and we can estimate (on the low side) $5,000 to install... we all know that electricians charge a lot (no pun intended), so that is probably really low.

79 million X $15K = $1,185,000,000,000... that's $1.1 trillion.

"Well that's what we spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined! Make solar, not war!"

well, aside from the costs of NOT going to war, like allowing terrorists to train in these regions, the continued slaughter of the innocents by Saddam Hussein and the Taliban, and additional strikes on US foreign and domestic target, we'll tentatively agree that we could use a similar amount of money to provide solar panels... we're talking possibility here, not ideology.

so, if it's possible, why aren't we funding that?

well, because we have a small problem:
Thin, cheap solar panels need tellurium, which makes up a scant 0.0000001 percent of the earth’s crust, making it three times rarer than gold.
when the rush to build solar panels increases, the value of these "rare earth" materials will rise exponentially... the cost will be much more than those simple numbers above, because a high demand and a low supply will increase costs dramatically.

so, while, on the surface, it sounds like a great idea, one i'm totally behind... in reality, it's not that easy.

but nothing worthwhile ever is.

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Rs vs. Ds - Questionist - Re-Blog

re-blog post of The Questionist... some formatting and all emphasis are mine... no edits of content.

Every once in a while a post comes along that shines a very bright spotlight on just how profoundly insulated some people's personal echo chambers are. This one is mind boggling in its contempt for reality. Before I deconstruct this fantastical narrative, I need to clarify that this is NOT a defense of Republicans, nor is it an indictment of Democrats.

Claim #1:
Democrats are responsible for 65 straight months of economic growth.
Facts: The economic collapse of 2008 resulted in economic indicators that reach 75 year lows. These numbers were so far from average that the chances of them improving were near 100%, no matter what the government did or who was in charge. This results from a statistical phenomenon called “regression toward the mean.”
One famous example of this phenomenon in action is the “Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx.” Athletes or teams that are featured on the cover are chosen only following extremely good performances. Regression toward the mean all but assures that their performance will not be as good as the exceptional performance responsible for getting them on the cover. The same phenomenon holds true for any variable metric.
The economic growth that we have realized is much smaller and slower than expected, and the evidence that Democratic policies are responsible is non-existent, especially considering more than half of that growth was realized under a Republican House.

Claim #2:
Democrats are responsible for record 56 months of private sector job growth.
Facts: See #1.

Claim #3:
Democrats are responsible for unemployment falling from 10.1% to 5.9%.
Facts: Both the Employment to Population Ratio (also called simply the employment rate) and the Labor Force Participation Rate have dropped to 30+ year lows.
The unemployment rate of 5.9% that we see on the news does not give us the entire picture. If you add those actively seeking employment + short term discouraged workers + long term discouraged workers + part time workers who want to work full time, the number is closer to 23%. And if we used the same unemployment measurement we used prior to 1994, unemployment would be around 18%.
Add to this that people who are reentering the labor force are getting jobs with lower wages and fewer hours, and add to this that income inequality is increasing, and add to this that wages are not keeping pace with inflation; and the 5.9% unemployment rate we see in the headlines is not particularly meaningful. And... See #1 – regression toward the mean.

Claim #4:
Democrats are responsible for the budget deficit being reduced by two-thirds.
Facts: This one is more complicated, and I'm not going to pretend to understand all the reasons for this. What we do know from looking at revenue compared to spending is that spending has largely leveled off, and revenue has slowly increased since a $500 billion dip following the collapse; so part of this reduction is due again to regression toward the mean. Spending under Bush increased at a faster than normal rate due to increased military spending and, because for most of his term, Republicans controlled both houses of Congress. Any time the same party is in control of both the executive and legislative branches, spending increases.
I'll conclude that this claim has some truth to it, but keep in mind that the National Debt has increased from $10.7 trillion to $18 trillion under Obama. In terms of debt as a percentage of GDP, it has increased under Obama from 65% to over 100%. As a comparison, under Bush it increased from 55% to 65%. This is a long term trend that has little to do with who is President or who is in control of Congress, but it is a distinctly unhealthy trend.

Claim #5:
Democrats are responsible for fewer Americans in harm's way in war zones.
Facts: The reduction in troops in Iraq was the direct result of the U.S.-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement signed by Bush in 2008.
Yes, there are fewer troops overseas, but what Americans wanted and expected when they voted for Obama was a drastic reduction in military interventionism, not just the number of troops on the ground.
What we did NOT want or expect was hundreds of drone strikes in Pakistan, an invasion of Libya, American citizens killed in Yemen, 17,000 residual forces, diplomats, and defense contractors left in Iraq, and 10,000 troops left in Afghanistan after the end of 2014.
As recently as September of 2012 Obama said. “We are bringing our troops home from Afghanistan. And I've set a timetable. We will have them all out of there by 2014. And when I say I'm going to bring them home, you know they're going to come home.” This is clearly not the case.
We did not want or expect an escalation in Iraq that included renewed airstrikes. We did not want or expect a new war in Iraq and Syria.

Claim #6:
Democrats are responsible for zero attacks by al Qaeda on US soil.
Facts: I'm not sure how Democrats are responsible for this, and there are far too few data points to draw any conclusions about which party is better or worse at preventing terrorist attacks.

Claim #7:
Democrats are responsible for record stock market growth.
Facts: This is perhaps the most clear example of regression to the mean. A stock market at rock bottom has nowhere else to go but up. In addition, the Federal Reserve dumped 16 trillion printed US Dollars into the market in 2008-2009, and has continued to pump 85 billion printed US Dollars into the market ever since. There is no possible way that the stock market could NOT have gone up under these conditions, and the negative effects are a dramatic increase in wealth inequality, a huge stock market bubble, and economic growth that is supported almost exclusively by debt. Despite the record stock market numbers, the US economy is very sick in a very real and long term sense.
Again, this has nothing to do with which party is in power, and much to do with short-sighted monetary policy on the part of the Federal Reserve. Almost all politicians focus on short term solutions with complete disregard to long term effects. This cliff will be very difficult, if not impossible, to retreat from.

Claim #8:
Republicans are responsible for two economic recessions.
Facts: Recessions are largely the result of natural economic fluctuations, and the only influence that politicians can hope for is to reduce the effect or shorten the duration. The recession of 2002 was a direct result of the bursting of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.
The collapse of 2008 was the result of several factors, none of them having anything to do with which party was in power. The precipitating factor was the collapse of the housing bubble which was, in turn, precipitated by artificially low interest rates by the Federal Reserve and ridiculously easy lending terms which resulted in millions of people getting mortgages that were above their abilities to maintain.
Another factor was the 1999 repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act which separated commercial and investment banking. This allowed commercial banks to, effectively, gamble with our money. The repeal of this act was supported by both Democrats and Republicans, and signed by Bill Clinton.

Claim #9:
Republicans were responsible for the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression.
Facts: See #8.

Claim #10:
Republicans were responsible for the worst terrorist attack in history.
Facts: This claim is probably the most disconnected from reality of any of the claims on this list. One only needs to read exactly what Osama bin Laden himself explained as the reasons for the attack. [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/nov/24/theobserver]
Among the motivations stated by bin Laden for the attack were: long term US aggression in the Middle East, US attacks on Somalia, US support for Russian atrocities in Chechnya, Guantanamo Bay, the presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia, immorality of Americans (including the President), US support for Israel, and US sanctions against Iraq. (People seem to forget that Clinton was bombing Iraq throughout his term on a regular basis.)
None of these alleged provocations had anything to do with which party was in power, although the most immediate of them (and infuriating for bin Laden) happened on Clinton's watch.
Another possible motivation for the 9/11 attack offered by terrorism experts is that bin Laden wanted to provoke America into a war that would incite a pan-Islamist revolution. Considering what is currently happening with the Islamic State, one can only conclude that this strategy has been largely successful.

Claim # 11:
Republicans were responsible for the two longest wars in US history.
Facts: This claim regarding the war in Iraq is mostly true. This happened on Bush's watch with fabricated claims made by his administration, and a large majority of Republicans supporting the Iraq War Authorization. Note that a majority of Democratic Senators also voted in favor of the resolution.
This claim regarding the war in Afghanistan is, however, completely false. Only three members of Congress did not vote in favor of this, one Democrat and two Republicans.

Claim #12:
Republicans are responsible for the worst record of job creation since Herbert Hoover.
Facts: It is true that job creation under Bush was the worst since Hoover, and a certain amount of blame can be placed at the feet of Republicans. Another factor is (you guessed it) regression to the mean. After the dot-com boom, employment was exceptionally high, and it was a statistical near certainty that job creation would slow down or decrease.
Another factor is that the forces that led to the 2008 collapse were working against the economy well before the actual collapse itself. It's also worth a reminder that governmental actions have limited effects on job creation, and what small effects there are can lag several years behind the action.

Claim #13:
Republicans are responsible for a complete collapse of the stock market.
Facts: See #8. (It's interesting that three of the seven claims against Republicans are essentially the exact same claim. I could have come up with a lot more legitimate complaints against Republicans.)

Claim #14:
A budget surplus turned into a trillion dollar deficit.
Facts: It's true that Republican led spending on military intervention added to the deficits experienced under Bush. But yet again this can, to a large degree, be explained by regression to the mean. The 1990s saw an unprecedented information revolution, and a dot-com bubble that was further inflated by a badly timed reduction in capital gains taxes (which was supported by both Democrats and Republicans and signed by Clinton).

https://www.facebook.com/janisianpage/photos/a.357587427661315.87486.357191544367570/736868986399822/?type=1&theater

Source:
The Questionist on Facebook - post

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Econ 101 - Government subsidies, or Don't Be Silly

I keep reading about "progressives", a misnomer if I've ever heard one, who decry the government handouts to corporations... the most common target is what they lovingly refer to as "Big Oil"... Big Oil, they say, should not receive government subsidies because they're corporations... they're big enough to not need the money... and they're right; the companies do not need the money... but this shows a terrible naiveté about how money works.

let's say a barrel of crude oil costs $104, as it did in July of 2014... Big Oil is allowed a tax credit off this price due to an exception in the tax code... they're allowed to "write-off" about 15% of the cost of extraction from their federal taxes... now, this doesn't equate one-to-one to dollars they save, but some sources say this, along with other tax breaks, equates to over $4 billion dollars each year.

if we stop those tax breaks, the government gains $4 billion dollars... but where does that come from?... will Big Oil swallow that bitter pill?

don't be silly.

these costs will be borne by the consumers of Big Oil... the truckers who bring goods to market will pay the most... will they bear the lion's share alone?

don't be silly.

will the grocery stores and retail outlets pay that price for the increased costs of delivering the good they sell?

don't be silly.

the consumers, the American people, will shoulder the cost... reduction or removal of any government subsidy is an indirect tax on the populous... to believe otherwise is to believe in fairy tales.

speaking of fairy tales, there is something the government can do to offset the damage done to their citizens... they could reduce the taxes imposed by the government on the sale of gasoline and other petroleum products.

don't be silly.

the federal and state governments make 40 cents per gallon sold in the United States... Exxon, for example, made 7 cents per gallon (in 2011)... these progressives want Big Oil to pay these taxes out of their pockets, yet will they open their own purses to help those actually paying the costs?

Don't. Be. Silly.


  • Crude Oil: 67%.
  • Refining Costs and Profits: 12%
  • Distribution, Marketing, and Retail Costs and Profits: 9%
  • Taxes: 12%.
    • Federal excise taxes were 18.4 cents per gallon
    • State excise taxes average 23.52 cents per gallon


Source:
This Eye-Opening Map Shows The Reason Gas Is More Expensive And Who’s Profiting The Most - The Federalist Papers; by Steve Straub on July 14, 2014

Happy 100th Birthday, Big Oil Tax Breaks - ThinkProgress; by Rebecca Leber on March 1, 2013

What do I pay for in a gallon of regular gasoline? - US Energy Information Administration FAQ

How much oil is consumed in the United States? - US Energy Information Administration FAQ

Who Really Gets Rich Off High Gas Prices? - Wall Street Journal; By Drew Johnson on August 2, 2012

Who makes more from sales at the pump – industry or government? - ExxonMobile; by Ken Cohen August 8, 2012

Gasoline Tax Profits - Factcheck.org; on April 11, 2008

Who Really Gets Rich Off High Gas Prices? - Salon.com; by Richard Rider on August 9, 2012

State and Federal Treasuries "Profit" More from Gasoline Sales than U.S. Oil Industry - TaxFoundation.org; By Jonathan Williams, Scott A. Hodge on October 26, 2005

Saturday, September 6, 2014

shoes and the minimum wage (a lesson in economics)

everybody needs shoes... kicks, chucks, treads, toms, shit-kickers, high-heel, pumps, crocs, flip-flops, boots, tennis, deck, loafers... doesn't matter what shoe, but you've gotta have them, right?

and you need more than one pair of shoes, right ladies?... even you guys need a few... formal shoes... work shoes... brown shoes and black shoes... beach shoes... house shoes... boat shoes for those nautical among us... high-heel; low rise; open toe; strappy; slip-on; zip-up... a shoe for every occasion!

how about those Jimmy Choo shoes?... now that's some footwear!... and we're not just talking Ivette Patent Sandals... no, we're talking Chocolate and Cobalt Suede Shearling Lined Hi-tops, too... and Amore Pointed Toe Ankle Boots... and Prescott Glossed-Leather and Suede Dégradé Derby Shoes.

so... why aren't all of your shoes made by Jimmy Choo?... what, too expensive?... that's not fair... that's classist, if not outright racist!... everyone should be able to afford Jimmy Choo's!!!

no?

not true?

but what if ALL shoes cost $750, like Jimmy Choo's?... what if Nike, Reebok, Converse, TOMS, Puma, and every style and type of shoe cost $750?... how many pairs of shoes would you have?

you might get one pair.

you'd probably go without.

and when you finally saved up enough money to buy a pair, would you get just any old shoe?... would you get a pair of Croc's?... or flip-flops?... hell no!... you'd get the best, most reliable, sturdiest pair of shoes you could find... you'd make sure that you would NEVER damage or lose that pair of shoes... and you'd guard them like they were made of gold... hell, they might just BE made of gold for $750.

this sounds foolish, doesn't it?

everyone knows that there are classes of shoes... some are worth more than others... some people are willing to buy cheap pair of shoes, knowing full well that they won't last very long, and they'll have to buy another pair of cheap shoes to replace them.

some people will spend more on a pair of shoes... they'll take good care of those shoes... if they get damaged, they'll try to fix the problem before buying a new pair... maybe a new heel... re-sole the tread... new laces.

and a few people will buy expensive shoes, wear them once, and forget about them.

common knowledge.

now, imagine you are a business owner.

you don't need shoes; you need employees... you want to buy the best employee you can with what money you have... do you buy the most expensive employee on the market?... maybe you do, and you show off to your clientele that your company has the best employees money can buy... maybe you buy the best and put them in a corner office with a nice fat salary and no responsibilities... you buy them, and forget them.

or maybe you're more frugal... you want a good employee... one who will last... one who will do the job needed without a lot of upkeep... so you buy a mid-level employee at a fair salary... you don't want him to leave, so on occasion you give him the odd bonus... maybe a small raise... or a pat on the back, just so he knows he's appreciated... you take care of your employee because you don't want to buy a new one... not unless you have to.

or maybe you can't afford an expensive employee... maybe you don't have a business that makes a lot of excess money... so you go for a low wage, or even minimum wage, hourly employee... you know they're not going to be great employees... but you can afford to buy one now, and you can replace them when they stop working... maybe you don't take great care of them, and another employer steals them away from you, possibly offering them a salaried job... that's okay... you can afford to buy another... but you can't afford much, so you buy another minimum wage employee.

but what if ALL employees cost the same?

what if minimum wage was $15 an hour, and you can only afford $7.50... what then?

do you get one employee when you really need two?

do you go without?

Monday, February 10, 2014

i've told you a trillion times

US Debt = $17,322,966,800,000
but what is a "trillion"?... how do you conceptualize a number this large?

US Debt converted to seconds:
1 trillion seconds = ( 10^12 sec)/( 3.16 x 10^7 sec/yr) = 31,688 years
17.3229668 x 31,688 yr = 548,932 years

Homo-erectus lived 500,000 years ago. Neanderthals didn't evolve until nearly 300,000 years later.

US Debt converted to hours:
1 trillion hours = ( 10^12 hr)/( 8,766 hr/yr) = 114,077,116 years
17.3229668 x 144,077,116 yr = 1,976,154,095 years ~ 2 billion years

The only known living organisms 2 billion years ago were a form of algae. The first oxygen was produced on Earth.

US Debt converted to days:
1 trillion days = ( 10^12 days)/( 365.25 days/yr) = 2,737,850,787 years
17.3229668 x 2,737,850,787 yr = 47,427,698,289 years ~ 50 billion years

The universe is only 13 billion years old. So 50 billion is truly meaningless.

US Debt converted to light-years:
17,322,966,800 miles / 5.878625 mi/ly = 2.95 light years ~ 3 light-years

The Andromeda Galaxy is a spiral galaxy approximately 2.5 million light-years (2.4×1019 km) from Earth.
Proxima Centauri is a red dwarf [star] about 4.24 light-years from Earth.

source:
US Debt Clock - February 10, 2014
How Big is a Trillion? - NASA

Friday, December 6, 2013

Basic Math for Liberals - Re-Blog

I am tired of arguing with idiots about unemployment numbers. Stupid people (liberals) seem to think that so long as the unemployment numbers drop that this shows the economy is growing. Now I know those of you who know something about economics and statistics are about to have an aneurism over how stupid that is, but let me go over the basics of how we get unemployment numbers…and what you should really be looking at.

Minimum Wage

Now I’m going to try and use round numbers to help make this as simple as possible (and I’m going to gloss over a few complexities so we can get to the heart of the matter).

Let’s say you have a population of 200,000 people.

100,000 people want a job. That means you have a job participation rate of 50%.

Now let’s say that 95,000 of those people looking for a job have a job, and 5,000 of those people don’t have a job. That means your unemployment is 5%. And let’s say of those 95,000 employed, 5,000 (5% of the those in the work force) of those are working at part time jobs but want full time jobs. These people are called underemployed. The underemployment rate is the unemployment rate plus those who are underemployed. (Under employment is usually calculated as the percent of underemployed plus the rate of unemployment, but to keep the numbers separate and simple we won’t add them together here).

Now, what idiots look at is the unemployment rate. This is dumb, and let me explain why.

Let’s say the government does something monumentally stupid (so, status quo) like raise the minimum wage. This will cause employers to pull back on hiring. The first thing that will happen is that employers will either through firing the most inept or through simple attrition (when somebody leaves you don’t fill their position). This will cause the unemployment numbers to go up. Let’s say that there are now only 94,000 jobs, or an unemployment rate of 6%. And idiots will be rightfully concerned…but not for long.

Why? Because the first ones hit by minimum wage increases are young people who, without experience aren’t worth the higher wage the employer has to pay, and older people. Those who have a business are not willing to put in the money for training as it will not work as a long term investment. And since these groups know they can’t get a job they will either continue living with mom and dad or go live with their kids and just stop looking for work. Let’s say 2,000 people just give up looking for work. So that now means you have 98,000 looking for work, and 94,000 with a job. Guess what unemployment is DOWN TO 4.1%!!!! Isn’t that great! Raising the minimum wage lowered unemployment from 5% to 4.1%!!! Of course since the participation rate dropped form 50% to 49%, that means that 1,000 fewer people are employed now, but the unemployment number dropped!

And then it gets worse. The rise in minimum wage causes inflation (as it always does) and that means companies that aren’t employing minimum wage positions will have to lay off employees or use attrition practices. So they lay off 1,000 employees. Now we’re at 98,000 looking for work and 93,000 employed. Back to 5.1% unemployment. But don’t worry those 1,000 will soon find minimum wage jobs and kick out 1,000 other less qualified people from those jobs. So now you instead of 5,000 people underemployed, you now have 6,000. Underemployment has jumped from 5% to 8.8%! But don’t worry because another 1,000 people are probably going to give up looking for work (probably more actually but let’s keep the numbers nice and round). So now only 97,000 want to be employed. Oh look unemployment back to 4.1% and underemployment is now only 6.1%. It’s a miracle the unemployment numbers and underemployment numbers dropped. Things must be doing great!

But no. In this situation while the unemployment rate started at 5% and dropped to 4.1%, that masks the fact that there are 2,000 fewer jobs. And a 1,000 more people are earning less than they would like. (And let’s ignore the inflation that’s going on and the fact that most of the other employed people probably aren’t getting raises – but their personal costs just went up.)

So we can see the unemployment rate is very misleading and what is important, first and foremost is the participation rate and followed by that the underemployment rate.

So when Obama touts the unemployment numbers are down keep in mind a few things.

The participation rate is at its lowest level since 1978! From a peak of just over 67% we are down to just over 63% (a 4% drop, keep in mind my example only included a 1% drop). And this drop in participation does not seem to have come anywhere near to an end.

Second keep in mind that underemployment (this is the calculation of both those underemployed and those unemployed) has gone from 7.0% in 2000 to 17.4% (a 10% increase, and my example only had 1.1% increase).

So don’t tell me that the economy is doing well because the unemployment number is down. It’s not. It’s doing terribly.

And it’s not just raising minimum wage that does this (and yes raising minimum wage always does this)... it’s regulations and taxes and oversight and red tape. All government action increases the factors that make employers want to hire fewer employees. And this may be not so great for depriving people of income, hope, and jobs.... but as we’ve seen it can be great for getting the unemployment numbers down. I mean if everyone would just give up looking for work, we could have 0% unemployment.


source:
Basic Math for Liberals | The Conservative New Ager BY CRISAP | SEPTEMBER 13, 2013 · 5:45 PM

Thursday, August 29, 2013

billion dollar Big Mac


  • 1,700,000 McDonalds employees worldwide
  • 800,000 McDonalds employees in the US
  • $7.50 minimum wage
  • $15.00 desired wage
  • 550,000,000 Big Macs sold per year
thanks redstate.com for image

if we raised the wages of all US McDonalds employees (because we don't care about international employees) to their desired demanded wage of $15.00 per hour, what would we have to raise the price of the Big Mac to cover those costs?

let's do the math (FUN!)

800,000 x ($15.00 - $7.50) = an additional $6,000,000 to employ all McDonalds employees for one hour.

but they don't all work at the same time... let's assume there are many more part-time workers than full time... and let's estimate each worker works and average of only 20 hours during any given week... we'll estimate low, just y'know, because we don't want to be unrealistic.

$6,000,000 x 20 = an additional $120,000,000 to pay for one week of all McDonalds employees.

there are 52 weeks in a year... usually.

$120,000,000 x 52 = an additional $6,240,000,000 to pay the additional wages of all McDonalds employees for one full year.

that's 6.24 Billion additional dollars... that has to come from somewhere... like raising the price of Big Macs.

$6,240,000,000 / 550,000,000 = an additional $11.35 per Big Mac.

what are they now, like $2.99?... so a Big Mac would cost $14.34 plus tax... no fries... no shake.

i know... McDonalds would raise the price of everything in small amounts, not just one item... but you're obviously already missing the main point here... of course, if you've read this far, you're probably smarter then the average fast-food worker, so maybe you do see the problem.

$6.24 billion dollars has to come from somewhere... it doesn't just magically fall from the sky or spout from the mouth of a geyser... it comes from consumers... it comes from average working-class citizens like you and me... maybe not even you, because you probably wouldn't deign to enter such a bastion of capitalism like McDonalds, so maybe it's just coming from me... and people like me.

the "rich" don't pay for Big Macs... it's the working poor... it's the same people who work at places like McDonalds who then shop and eat at places like McDonalds... it's us... we have to come up with $6.24 billion dollars.

and if you are still arguing for higher wages, you are too stupid to be worth paying more than minimum wage... like the Ouroboros, you think you're getting fed by eating your own tail.

and i bet you wonder what the head tastes like.
http://unsider.deviantart.com/art/Ouroboros-Drawing-271330221


source:
http://www.aboutmcdonalds.com/mcd/our_company.html
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000119312511046701/d10k.htm