Excess Mortality, Thread

Excess Mortality, Thread:

I have just discovered a major error in the #CoVid data of the NCHS Mortality surveillance data. This is all based on the official NCHSData49.csv as downloaded from here (original downloaded 12/15):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData49.csv

The data begins in week 40 of 2013 and ends week 49 of 2020. The data looks basically like this:

Yr | Wk | All Deaths | Pneumonia | Influenza | COVID | PIC*

*PIC = Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID deaths (sum of) 

The first COVID death listed was 2020 Week 6. Pneumonia death (P) = 3799. Influenza death (I) = 520. COVID death (C) = 1. PIC = 4320.

Math check: 3799+520+1=4320 ✅

The math adds up fine until 2020 Week 8. P=3699. I=566. C=4. PIC=4268.

Math check: 3699+566+4=4269 ❌

Here's this problem: Deaths are being classified as PIC deaths, as well as P/I/C deaths. So, in 2020 Week 8, someone was classified as a PIC death AND a P or I death, also.

Someone was counted twice.

But, it gets worse. As the COVID deaths accelerate, the double-counting does, too.

2020 Week 9 - 5 fewer PIC than P+I+C

2020 Week 10 - 19 fewer PIC than P+I+C

2020 Week 11 - 29 fewer PIC than P+I+C

2020 Week 12 - 257 fewer PIC than P+I+C

By 2020 Week 13, the NCHS was double counting 1479 excess deaths.

The following weeks vary from a low of 1548 excess deaths to a high of 7550.

By my calculations, there were 121,888 deaths double counted as COVID and as either Pneumonia or Influenza.

So, what do we do with this knowledge?

My assumption here is that few (if any at all) of these deaths were both COVID and Influenza. Likely, these deaths were COVID / Pneumonia. It would seem reasonable that a death could be from Pneumonia caused by COVID.

Or, perhaps some people died of Pneumonia AND had also tested positive for COVID, thereby were counted as both (even if the cause was the Pneumonia, alone).

So we have two likely scenarios, either (or both) could be true.

One, we have 121,888 fewer Pneumonia deaths.

Two, we have 121,888 fewer COVID deaths.

Possibly, we have a split of both fewer Pneumonia and COVID, but without individual case details, that may never be known.

However, I have discovered a strange anomaly elsewhere. In trying to verify numbers, I found the "NCHS Mortality Report for the Week Ending December 5, 2020 (Week 49) Data as of December 10, 2020"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/12112020/csv/nchs-mortality-report.csv

In this chart, they list Total Deaths, Influenza deaths, COVID deaths, and PIC deaths. These numbers all align with the previous chart. But Pneumonia deaths are not listed.

So I check my history to find the original link to the COVID data. It isn't there.

What do we do with this information?

Well, in reviewing the data, the 2020 Week 39 can be safely compared with the Week 39 data from prior years. Since COVID data for those years will be zero, we can make an apples-to-apples comparison of Pneumonia and Influenza.

Week 39 data:

2014 - P=3017; I=6

2015 - P=3057; I=6

2016 - P=2986; I=11

2017 - P=2888; I=19

2018 - P=2814; I=14

2019 - P=2780; I=16

2020 - P=4715; I=3

We can also compare the Week 40 through Week 39 totals of each "Season":

2013-'14 - P=182,691; I=4485

2014-'15 - P=193,237; I=8197

2015-'16 - P=178,002; I=3448

2016-'17 - P=179,621; I=6954

2017-'18 - P=180,137; I=15,620

2018-'19 - P=168,608; I=7175

2019-'20 - P=263,791; I=9415

It appears evident (to me) that we have found our error. Of the 121,888 duplicated deaths, it would seem reasonable that these were additional Pneumonia deaths who ALSO had COVID.

It would appear that we have excess Pneumonia deaths over the standard yearly average.

And it would be reasonable to assume that these additional Pneumonia deaths, who also had COVID, were likely COVID-induced-Pneumonia, rather than stand-alone Pneumonia cases which incidentally had COVID. Nothing else explains the excess mortality of Pneumonia cases.

Additional conclusions from the data -Overall mortality:

Comparing yearly mortality from ALL CAUSES, including PIC, there does seem to be a spike. But is the spike great enough to account for the COVID deaths, which should likely be in excess of the average?

Total "Season" Deaths:

2013-'14 - 2,580,853

2014-'15 - 2,750,884

2015-'16 - 2,697,072

2016-'17 - 2,790,278

2017-'18 - 2,835,734

2018-'19 - 2,831,233

2019-'20 - 3,142,232; COVID=203,899

Average deaths 2013-2019 "Seasons" = 2,747,674

2020 "Season" deaths less COVID = 2,938,333

It seems reasonable to assume that overall mortality is in a reasonable range for the year if you exclude the excess deaths caused by COVID.

What can we say about the effect COVID has had on Influenza deaths?

Some might say the Influenza deaths are down due to COVID.

Some would assume this is due to the mask wearing, social distancing, and hand washing.

Others would assume this is due to nefarious counting.

Well, if you compare the total "Season" cases of Influenza between 2019 Week 40 and 2020 Week 39, you would see we're actually up a little from the average of 7646 (2013-2019) to 9415 for the 2019-2020 "Season".

What I would like to see is if there is any rise in excess death from suicide and homicide to see if it correlates to the COVID lockdowns. And also if those excess deaths would offset the COVID deaths in any fashion.

But, I do not have those numbers. Yet.

source:

https://twitter.com/rvolt24/status/1343975559668367360

Excess Mortality, Thread:
I have just discovered a major error in the #CoVid data of the NCHS Mortality surveillance data. This is all based on the official NCHSData49.csv as downloaded from here (original downloaded 12/15):https://t.co/VkzgNfDZO6

— Señor Hilaria (@rvolt24) December 29, 2020

Deliver up your arms said Xerxes

Once again, I see so many posts about gun control following a tragedy. The emotional reaction is understandable, but the failure to think logically is not. We want to protect the defenseless from those who would do them harm. But the emotional reaction is to remove the tool from the would-be attacker's hand, never getting to the logical conclusion that you also remove the same tool from the hands of the defender.

In an emotional state, we want to remove "assault weapons" from violent criminals. "Assault weapons" sound very dangerous, so on an emotional level, it seems to make sense to remove them from reach of criminals. But if we do, the criminal either obtains the weapon illegally, or they simply choose another weapon. The defender has become defenseless against such a person unless they too become criminals.

But who needs an assault weapon to defend themselves?

crazy is as crazy does

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) took an opposing view, arguing that had someone else in the Aurora theater been carrying a weapon, “maybe, maybe they could have prevented some of those deaths, some of those injuries, and that’s just the truth.”
Feinstein retorted: “And maybe you could have had a fire fight and killed many more people.”

not "many more"... just ONE more.

gun control is being able to hit your target the first time.

---

source:
Few signs Colorado shooting will make gun control a campaign issue - latimes.com

abort your teenager

Euthanasia in infants has been proposed by philosophers for children with severe abnormalities whose lives can be expected to be not worth living and who are experiencing unbearable suffering.

yes... we used to call those people Nazi's... ever visit the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington D.C.?

The moral status of an infant is equivalent to that of a fetus in the sense that both lack those properties that justify the attribution of a right to life to an individual.

which "properties" are these?... supposedly, they can't ascribe a "basic value" to their own life, therefore cannot be a "loss" should that life be deprived... i believe that even a fetus recognizes a "basic value", or why else would there be a pain response?

Merely being human is not in itself a reason for ascribing someone a right to life.

so, what are they saying?... we can ascribe rights as we see fit?... well, what if i say we grant personhood at age 18?... can i abort my teenager?
"I brought you into this world; I can take you out!"

However, whereas you can benefit someone by bringing her into existence (if her life is worth living), it makes no sense to say that someone is harmed by being prevented from becoming an actual person. The reason is that, by virtue of our definition of the concept of ‘harm’ in the previous section, in order for a harm to occur, it is necessary that someone is in the condition of experiencing that harm.

nice trick, that... redefine the term harm into something that agrees with your argument... how many times have we seen this tactic?

If criteria such as the costs (social, psychological, economic) for the potential parents are good enough reasons for having an abortion even when the fetus is healthy, if the moral status of the newborn is the same as that of the infant and if neither has any moral value by virtue of being a potential person, then the same reasons which justify abortion should also justify the killing of the potential person when it is at the stage of a newborn.

so... if, as a parent, my child becomes a burden (or a punishment, as President Obama calls them), such that i believe the social, psychological, or economic cost is too great, then i have the right to dispose of them?... this will change my kid's Christmas lists, dramatically!

to all the Pro-Choice people... is this what you wanted?... because this is the natural course for the ethics you support... if such a basic right as life can be granted on such a subjective basis, what right do you have to say someone can't abort a child when it becomes a burden to the parent?

follow this thought down the rabbit-hole, and humans only have the right to life as those around them see fit... cancer patients are a burden to healthcare... elderly have outlived their useful life... children are not persons, but property... the mentally retarded have less rights than "normal" people... if someone is in an accident and gets brain damaged, should we just kill them outright before they inconvenience anyone?

how far do you let this go?

---

source:
Australian Ethicists Argue the Right to Kill Babies After They’re Born - Liberty Counsel March 2, 2012

JME Online First, published on March 2, 2012 as 10.1136/medethics-2011-100411

slavery of conscience

suppose a hypothetical, if you will... let us suppose a situation where you, personally, were required to kill a stranger, but you were morally opposed to murder... consider each point of the following, and decide if you agree to commit the murder or do you oppose the murder.

1. The government mandates that you murder a stranger.
2. You may hire someone to do this for you, and the government will reimburse their cost.
3. You must purchase the weapon, and the government will reimburse its cost.
4. You must document the stranger's family names, ages, and addresses, providing them to the government.
5. You must provide for any healthcare associated with the murder (i.e. incidental harm to a family member).
6. You must provide this murder "service" on demand.
7. You can only murder children.
8. Only the mother of the targeted child may request the murder.
9. The child must be in the mother's womb; unborn.

unless you are a sociopath, you look at #1 with disgust... you (hopefully) would refuse to murder a stranger.

maybe #2 will give you some moral reprieve, but it is still the same murder as in #1... only you are allowed to have a gun-for-hire do the wet-work.

at least with #3, the cost of murder is subsidized.. but it is still murder.

for me, #4 is macabre... it was much better when you didn't have to know anything about them... now, you know the family which is left behind.

just in case a family member is injured during the murder, #5 leaves you being responsible for their care... so, you have some responsibility in all this bloodshed... does your finances now affect you being able to murder someone?... or is it still just a murder?

with #6, now you have to murder someone whenever you are told to... at what point has this crossed from being "just a murder" and turned into a slaughter?

wouldn't you just flatly refuse #7?... there are those who can rationalize the murder of some, but could you murder children?

suddenly #8 turns homicide to infanticide... are you really willing to assist a mother in the murder of her own child?

and #9... suddenly, this is okay... this isn't murder; it's abortion... a moment ago, we were abhorrent in the thought of being forced to assist a mother in killing her child... but now, we're okay with it... now, we don't understand what the fuss of the first eight propositions was all about.

of course it's okay to murder a stranger; if it's abortion.
of course it's okay to hire a murderer; if it's an abortion doctor.
of course it's okay to buy tools of killing; if it's to abort a child.
it's only polite to know the family; after all, you're aborting their child.
of course you take care of the mother; it was in her womb that you murdered her child.
of course you provide this on demand; it's the mother's choice, not the aborted child's.
of course you can murder children; if they haven't been born.

the same people who were against murder in the first place are the ones who cheer for it now... they can't understand that when someone is against murder from the start, they are against murder to the end.

---

Three points. As Paul Ryan said to you, this is an account gimmick that they've done that in no way hems the complicity of Catholic institutions and individuals in delivering services they consider morally abhorrent.

Second. You asked the question, 'How did this come about?' George, this is what liberalism looks like. This is what the progressive state does. It tries to break all the institutions of civil society, all the institutions that mediate between the individual and the state. They have to break them to the saddle of the state.

Third. The Catholic Bishops, it serves them right. They're the ones who were really hot for Obamacare, with a few exceptions. But they were all in favor of this. And this is what it looks like when the government decides it's going to make your healthcare choices for you.
- George Will, ABC's This Week, 2/12/2012

---

sources:
Liz Cheney: ‘Political Expedience’ Drove President Away From 1st Amendment

George Will On Contraception Flap: "This Is What Liberalism Looks Like"

Madalyn Murray O’Hair

My mother, brother and daughter were murdered.

There is no getting around the evidence. For almost three years the national atheist organization my mother once led has claimed she left the country with a large amount of money. This was false and I will tell you in this letter why they told this lie over and over again.

First, I want to talk to you about spiritual matters that the general media does not understand.

My mother was not just Madalyn Murray O’Hair, the atheist leader. She was an evil person who led many to hell. That is hard for me to say about my own mother but it is true.

When I was a young boy of ten or eleven years old she would come home and brag about spending the day in X-rated movie theaters in downtown Baltimore. She was proud of the fact she was the only woman in the movie house watching this filth. My mother’s whole life circulated around such things. She even wrote articles for Larry Flynt’s pornographic magazine, Hustler. My mother lived in spiritual death as Paul writes: "But she that liveth in pleasure is dead while she liveth." I Timothy 5:6

My mother delighted in hiring unrepentant criminals to work in her atheist office. She particularly enjoyed hiring convicted murderers who had served their time but were unrepentant about what they had done. She got a sense of power out of having men in her employ who had taken human life. It was love of power over people that finally caused not only her death, but the deaths of my brother and my daughter.

My mother had complete power over my brother, Jon, and my daughter, Robin. Although I was able to break away from the evil of this family, an evil that had been there for generations, they could not. My mother did not permit either my brother or my daughter to speak to me. She had total control of them.

My brother would have been forty years old the month he was murdered. He lived with my mother. He had breakfast with my mother. He went to work with my mother. He had lunch with my mother. He had dinner with my mother. He went on vacation with my mother. He never married. He never really even had the opportunity to have a serious relationship with a woman because Of the control my mother possessed over him. My mother had the same control over my daughter. She was just thirty the year she was murdered. She also lived with my mother. My mother used food to control her and make her unattractive to men. By the time she was murdered she was so heavy she had to purchase two airline tickets because she could not fit in one seat.

For twenty years I could not talk to my brother. He would hang up the phone on me or tear up my letters and send them back. The same was true of my daughter. They both called me "TRAITOR" because I had accepted Christ and changed my life. By "traitor" they meant that I no longer followed the absolute direction of my mother as they did.

The house they lived in had statuettes of mating animals on virtually every piece of furniture. There was a full cabinet of booze and a refrigerator full of foods high in fat and sugar. They liked to live a life which my mother called "high off the hog".

I must admit that toward the end I had lost hope for my mother’s conversion. The last ten years of her life she became even more profane and vulgar as the demons she courted got their final hold on her. The media stopped courting her because of the number of profane words she would use which they had to edit out.

My hopes and my prayers remained for my brother and my daughter. I honestly believed that nature would take its course and that my mother would die naturally, leaving them behind. In my heart I believed that without her constant evil influence they would start to move toward the light of God. I had even written letters to Jon and Robin that I had planned on sending them when my mother died. Those letters will never be mailed, nor will they be read, because they died with her.

My mother was an evil person ... Not for removing prayer from America’s schools ... No ... She was just evil. She stole huge amounts of money. She misused the trust of people. She cheated children out of their parents’ inheritance. She cheated on her taxes and even stole from her own organizations. She once printed up phony stock certificates on her own printing press to try to take over another atheist publishing company. I could go on but I won’t. All the money my mother made in this manner stayed behind. It did not go with her. "For we brought nothing into this world and it is certain we can carry nothing out." I Timothy 6:7

My mother simply believed, "Do what thou wilt shall be the only law."

Regardless of how evil and lawless my mother was she did not deserve to die in the manner she did.

Yes, I understand that the circumstances were of her own making. She hired convicted murderers to work for her. She put one of those murders in charge of her office and he stole more than $54,000 from her. That same murderer is now suspected of killing her and Jon and Robin. He is also suspected of murdering and decapitating one of the men he recruited to kidnap my family.

Still, she was 77 years old when she was kidnapped. She and my daughter were held for almost 30 days, probably tied and gagged, while my brother desperately tried to obtain ransom money. At all times my brother was escorted by one of the kidnappers. Should he have run? Should he have tried to get help? I would have.

But, my brother was a total slave to my mother. He saw himself as her provider and rescuer. All his life she had talked down to him and made fun of him and now, in his mind, he would show her his worth by single-handedly rescuing her. He was murdered for his faithfulness.

Both my brother and daughter believed in my mother’s "importance" because she declared it constantly. Many times a day my mother would declare, "I am Madalyn Murray O’Hair." She honestly believed she had singled handedly removed prayer from school. She honestly believed she had "liberated" America sexually.

In reality my mother did not create the times, the times created her. She was what America was about in the sixties and seventies. There were several cases going to the Supreme Court to remove prayer. Her case just got there first. The left-wing Court of the day wanted prayer out of the schools and to allow abortion on demand. They virtually were advertising for cases to change America. But my mother saw the secular and sexual turn in America as centered around her.

I can see her now looking down the barrel of a gun and saying, "You don't dare shoot me, I AM MADALYN MURRAY O’HAIR." Of course, the killers did not care who she was just as most Americans didn’t care. To the majority of Americans and to the media she was just another celebrity fruit cake, sort of the Hulk Hogan of atheism.

The media asked me if I would hold a funeral and if so would there he prayer. My answer was simple but Biblical and sort of surprised them I am sure. I said, "They are already either in heaven of hell, praying over them now will not make a difference."

I made that statement knowing the torture they must have gone through the last thirty days of their lives. Did Robin pray to receive Christ as she was bound and gagged? Perhaps. Did my mother or brother cry out to the Lord just before they were murdered? I don’t know.

Christ is there for the vilest offender. The serial killer whose prayer at the hour of his death is genuine is also forgiven. My mother, my brother and my daughter may well await me in heaven. On the other hand, they may have stood their ground defying God to the end, in which case they are now spending yet another day of eternity in hell. If that is the case I will never see them again.

The deaths of my mother, brother and daughter should make all too clear the need for Christ to others that proclaim atheism. But those who would follow my mother continue to fight against God and His authority. "Fools make a mock at sin... " Prov. 14:8

During Easter, what is left of my mother’s American Atheist organization held a convention in New Jersey. My ministry placed an advertisement in the newspaper there to tell them about Jesus. The new atheist leader, Ellen Johnson, ranted and raved against me, against Christ and against the Holy Spirit.

Johnson told the media that the whole idea of my mother being murdered was a fabrication. She told the newspapers that I had "manufactured" the story using my connections to Congress to trick the FBI into getting involved. Why does this woman protest so much? Why does she not even shed a tear for her departed leader?

The FBI is involved because one of the individuals has confessed. How many others he will point his finger at I don’t know. But I do understand the "wisdom" of Ellen Johnson. Her "wisdom" is found in Psalm 14:1 "The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God."

Please continue to pray for this ministry and for my family. This is a difficult time. The news media calls day and night about my mother. The FBI even offered to provide a counselor for my wife Nancy and me. I said no thank you, I told the agent my family already has a counselor - the Great Counselor, Jesus Christ.

This statement was written by William Murray in May of 1999. The dismembered bodies of Madalyn Murray O’Hair, Jon Murray and Robin Murray were found in January of 2000 near Camp Wood, Texas. One of the killers, David Waters, led the authorities to the site in return for a guarantee he would serve his time in a Federal rather than in a Texas state prison. He died in prison of liver disease in 2003. A second killer was sentenced to life in prison.

---

source:
The Madalyn Murray O’Hair Murder

MS Amendment 26

if you think it goes too far, why don't you tell us how far is "far enough"?... at what point do you agree that a child has rights?... birth?... then why is the murder of a pregnant woman two homicides?

§ 97-3-37. Homicide; killing of an unborn child; "human being" includes unborn child at every stage of gestation from conception until live birth for purposes of offenses of assault and homicide
§ 97-3-19 (d). When done with deliberate design to effect the death of an unborn child.
§ 11-7-13. Whenever the death of any person or of any unborn quick child shall be caused by any real, wrongful or negligent act or omission...
- Mississippi Code Ann.

you argue against giving another human being the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness... does 26 go too far?

maybe.

but then again, why haven't YOU gone far enough?... draw your line in the sand... "This far, and no further"... third trimester?... at 37 weeks they are considered "full term", right?... but their lungs aren't developed... so, is it a person or a parasite?

second trimester?... they have organs, swallowing amniotic fluid and processing it out through kidneys... they can hear and react to sound outside the womb... but, it's not a person... it's okay to kill it, right?

first trimester?... they have hearts and a nervous system... its brain is already well developed... but if it doesn't know its name, it isn't a person... right?

right?

so, f@#k-it... i say we change Amendment 26 to deny personhood to children up to their 18th year of life outside the womb... that'll shut up those whiners.

the donkey and his purchaser

Chris Matthews laughs about murdering someone's "grandma":

And talk about an ad that's over the edge, literally. A liberal group has produced [ad plays onscreen.] Oh, there you see it, not holding back on that one. [Laughs.] Throwing grandma or- that's- I think it is supposed to be Paul Ryan pushing the wheelchair with grandma over the edge. That's in the Sideshow. We will show you the full ad.
Finally, grandma gets thrown off the cliff. A liberal group called The Agenda Project has just released an ad wacking at Paul Ryan's to privatize Medicare. Subtle? This ad is not.
Boy, I love the point of view on that one as she tries to slow down with her feet.

Chris Matthews Called Conservative Political Talk 'Ugly,' But Laughs at Murdering Grandma | NewsBusters.org

talk about "violent rhetoric"... and they're laughing about it... where is the outrage over this?... where are the media pundits calling for boycotts and investigations?

and where is the Huffington Post, which was so outraged with right-wing rhetoric, on this one?... no where.

maybe that's because Erica Payne is a main contributor to HuffPo... and who is she, you ask?... she's the founder of The Agenda Project... so much for reasoned and rational discussion... also, this person has the following bio:

At the Roosevelt Institute, Payne co‐edited Make Markets Be Markets: Restoring the Integrity of the US Financial Markets and produced a major conference by the same name that included George Soros, Elizabeth Warren, Simon Johnson, Lynn Turner and other experts.

Agenda Project, Progressive Group, Unveils 'F*ck Tea' Anti-Tea Party Campaign

you are known by the company you keep.

ode on a broken urn

If you consider that there has been an average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theatre of operations during the past 22 months, and a total of 2112 deaths, that gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000 soldiers.

The firearm death rate in Washington DC is 80.6 per 100,000 for the same period.

That means that you are about 25 per cent more likely to be shot and killed in the US capital, which has some of the strictest gun control laws in the US, than you are in Iraq.

Conclusion? The US should pull out of Washington.

SSAA - Australian Shooter magazine (Oct, 2006)

while the statistics are dubious (at best), i thought it was a logical argument to make... what are the troop levels versus the mortality rate of those troops?... how does this compare to our nation's capital, Washington D.C.?... moreover, what conclusions can you make regarding these facts?... so, i did some (very) quick research... i thought i would share my findings.

Operation Enduring Freedom - Afghanistan
US soldiers killed = 1,503 (via Casualties by year and nationality - 2001-2011 )
US soldiers in theater = average 36,530 (via Average Monthly Boots On the Ground FY2002-2012 )
Deaths per 100,000 = 411

Homicide Rates - Washington, D.C.
Persons killed by homicide = 2,057 (via Metropolitan Police Department - Washington, D.C. )
Median population = 582,049 (via Google Public Data from U.S. Census Bureau )
Deaths per 100,000 = 35

so, what does this tell us?... two conclusions are clear to me.

#1 - figures don't lie, but liars often figure.

#2 - i'm not visiting either Afghanistan or Washington, D.C.